The results are hypothetical results and are NOT an indicator of future results and do NOT represent returns that any investor actually attained. Indexes are unmanaged, do not reflect management or trading fees, and one cannot invest directly in an index. Additional information regarding the construction of these results is available upon request.

The chart above (with my annotations on the far right) is from a research piece by The Carlyle Group.

From 1997 to 2005 oil and natural gas sat roughly at parity on an energy-adjusted basis. The spread widened thereafter, but came back in line when oil crashed.

Now we face the most epic spread in history.

Question: Is this one of the greatest opportunities in history? Or is this going to go down as the biggest “pain trade” of all time?