By |Published On: May 28th, 2013|Categories: Behavioral Finance|

Computer-aided diagnosis of acute abdominal pain

  • De Dombal, F. T., Leaper, D. J., Staniland, J. R., McCann, A. P., & Horrocks, J. C.
  • British Medical Journal, 2, 9-13
  • An online version of the paper can be found here
  • Want a summary of academic papers with alpha? Check out our free Academic Alpha Database!

Abstract:

This paper reports a controlled prospective unselected real-time comparison of human and computer-aided diagnosis in a series of 304 patients suffering from abdominal pain of acute onset. The computing system’s overall diagnostic accuracy (91·8%) was significantly higher than that of the most senior member of the clinical team to see each case (79·6%). It is suggested as a result of these studies that the provision of such a system to aid the clinician is both feasible in a real-time clinical setting, and likely to be of practical value, albeit in a small percentage of cases.

Prediction:

The authors examine patients with acute abdnominal pain admitted into the professorial surgical unit in the General Infirmary at Leeds.

Here is how the test works

  1. Tabulate diagnosis from the clinical team, the house surgeon’s diagnosis, and any senior members of the team who saw the patient. (“human” estimates and analysis)
  2. Case history were entered into a computing system to produce a real-time diagnosis.
  3. Compare diagnosis across humans and the computer.

Here are the categories considered (many of which are abbreviated in subsequent tables):

De_Dombal_etal_1972

Alpha Highlight:

First, a look at how the computer stacks up against the “experts,” aka, the senior clinician to the see the case:

com

Ouch. Computers trounce the top brains.

Thoughts on the paper?

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About the Author: Wesley Gray, PhD

Wesley Gray, PhD
After serving as a Captain in the United States Marine Corps, Dr. Gray earned an MBA and a PhD in finance from the University of Chicago where he studied under Nobel Prize Winner Eugene Fama. Next, Wes took an academic job in his wife’s hometown of Philadelphia and worked as a finance professor at Drexel University. Dr. Gray’s interest in bridging the research gap between academia and industry led him to found Alpha Architect, an asset management firm dedicated to an impact mission of empowering investors through education. He is a contributor to multiple industry publications and regularly speaks to professional investor groups across the country. Wes has published multiple academic papers and four books, including Embedded (Naval Institute Press, 2009), Quantitative Value (Wiley, 2012), DIY Financial Advisor (Wiley, 2015), and Quantitative Momentum (Wiley, 2016). Dr. Gray currently resides in Palmas Del Mar Puerto Rico with his wife and three children. He recently finished the Leadville 100 ultramarathon race and promises to make better life decisions in the future.

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Important Disclosures

For informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as specific investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Certain information is deemed to be reliable, but its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Third party information may become outdated or otherwise superseded without notice.  Neither the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) nor any other federal or state agency has approved, determined the accuracy, or confirmed the adequacy of this article.

The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Alpha Architect, its affiliates or its employees. Our full disclosures are available here. Definitions of common statistics used in our analysis are available here (towards the bottom).

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