Gold’s 3,000 Year Backtest–A New World Record!

/Gold’s 3,000 Year Backtest–A New World Record!

Gold’s 3,000 Year Backtest–A New World Record!

By | 2017-08-18T17:04:36+00:00 March 26th, 2014|Research Insights|5 Comments

Gold: The Best Performing Asset of the Last 3,000 Years?

Abstract:

Gold may have been the best performing asset of the last 3000, 2000 and 1000 years. Gold’s long-run real return has probably been close to zero. Gold could very well be the best performing asset of the next 3000 years.

One long term view of gold prices:

SSRN-id2406432

The results are hypothetical results and are NOT an indicator of future results and do NOT represent returns that any investor actually attained. Indexes are unmanaged, do not reflect management or trading fees, and one cannot invest directly in an index. Additional information regarding the construction of these results is available upon request.

 

And another even longer view:

g

The results are hypothetical results and are NOT an indicator of future results and do NOT represent returns that any investor actually attained. Indexes are unmanaged, do not reflect management or trading fees, and one cannot invest directly in an index. Additional information regarding the construction of these results is available upon request.

 

And the longest view on gold:

2014-12-16 10_38_11-Gold's 3,000 Year Backtest--A New World Record! - Alpha Architect

The results are hypothetical results and are NOT an indicator of future results and do NOT represent returns that any investor actually attained. Indexes are unmanaged, do not reflect management or trading fees, and one cannot invest directly in an index. Additional information regarding the construction of these results is available upon request.

 

So looks like over the LONG-TERM gold maintains it’s value–maybe grows a bit–but comes with massive stomach churning volatility. Relative to other assets, that might actually be attractive. Then again, in the long-run we are all dead anyway.


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About the Author:

Wes Gray
After serving as a Captain in the United States Marine Corps, Dr. Gray earned a PhD, and worked as a finance professor at Drexel University. Dr. Gray’s interest in bridging the research gap between academia and industry led him to found Alpha Architect, an asset management that delivers affordable active exposures for tax-sensitive investors. Dr. Gray has published four books and a number of academic articles. Wes is a regular contributor to multiple industry outlets, to include the following: Wall Street Journal, Forbes, ETF.com, and the CFA Institute. Dr. Gray earned an MBA and a PhD in finance from the University of Chicago and graduated magna cum laude with a BS from The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania.