A few months ago we did a post on avoiding predictions associated with highly confident experts.
A quote from my own blog post:
Expect the unexpected. Avoid highly confident predictions. Follow the model.
And of course, today, yours truly was on with Fox Business News with Deirdre Bolton.
Let me also point out that I made a highly confident prediction–“10 out of 10”–that carried interest would be eliminated in the next 5 years. I based this ridiculously precise prediction on the threats from the current administration:
See our post on “Tax Party–And Everyone is Invited” for a detailed discussion.
Avoid highly confident predictions–including my own. But hey, I do think there is a better than 50% chance the party will end with carried interest. Only the future will reveal what happens.
Tweet the video–want to get on their trending videos and be famous for a day. Come on, I need something to ease the pain of paying my taxes this year!
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