Maximize ESG exposure or screen out sin stocks?
Optimal Strategies for ESG Portfolios Fabio Alessandrini and Eric JondeauJournal of Portfolio ManagementA version of this paper can be found hereWant to read our summaries of [...]
This Time is Different? Consider Quantifying Subjective Priors
This time is different. --John Templeton "This time is different," is a sentiment that leads many investors to stray from using data analysis in their [...]
Estimating the Stock-Bond Correlation
The Stock-Bond Correlation Megan Czasonis, Mark Kritzman, and David TurkingtonJournal of Portfolio ManagementA version of this paper can be found hereWant to read our summaries of [...]
Trend-Following Filters: Part 1/2
1. Introduction Many traders use strategies based on trends that occur in stock, bond, currency, commodity, and other financial asset price time series in order [...]
P-Hacking Via Academic Finance Research Conferences
Documentation of the File Drawer Problem at Finance Conferences: A Follow-Up Study Manoela N. Morais and Matthew R. MoreyJournal of InvestingA version of this paper can be [...]
Predicting anomaly returns with politics, weather, global warming, sunspots, and the stars
Ferson, Sarkissian and Simin (2003) warn that persistence in expected returns generates spurious regression bias in predictive regressions of stock returns, even though stock returns are themselves only weakly auto correlated. Despite this fact a growing literature attempts to explain the performance of stock market anomalies with highly persistent investor sentiment. The data suggest, however, that the potential misspecification bias may be large. Predictive regressions of real returns on simulated regressors are too likely to reject the null of independence, and it is far too easy to find real variables that have “significant power” predicting returns. Standard OLS predictive regressions find that the party of the U.S. President, cold weather in Manhattan, global warming, the El Nino phenomenon, atmospheric pressure in the Arctic, the conjunctions of the planets, and sunspots, all have “significant power” predicting the performance of anomalies. These issues appear particularly acute for anomalies prominent in the sentiment literature, including those formed on the basis of size, distress, asset growth, investment, profitability, and idiosyncratic volatility.