Why I Don’t Invest in Momentum Stocks…Yet!
Confirmation bias is the tendency to cling to research/ideas that confirm with what you already believe. This behavioral bias leads to overconfidence and can impede our search for [...]
Ben Graham Would be Proud: Fundamental Analysis Works
Here is an interesting working paper on the use of fundamental analysis in stock selection. The authors take a dynamic regression "machine learning-esque" approach to building [...]
Cliff Asness Quick Hits: Smart Beta and Risk Parity
Cliff Asness gave a talk at The Bloomberg Markets Most Influential Summit a few weeks ago, and offered up some discussion of recent market developments, [...]
Absolute Strength Momentum Investing Strategy
Here we highlight an interesting working paper titled "Absolute Strength: Exploring Momentum in Stock Returns" by Gulen and Petkova (2015). The abstract is the following: [...]
Value Investing: The Pain Train has Arrived and it Sucks.
A few months ago we highlighted a surprising result: cheap high-quality stocks were getting crushed by expensive junk stocks. The spread at the end of [...]
Daily Academic Alpha: Momentum Investing and Asset Allocation
The results in this paper won't surprise most who are regular readers, but the paper below does a nice job explaining things in a simple [...]
How Do Dividend Paying Stocks Affect the Value Investing Anomaly?
Meb Faber tweeted an interesting question related to taxes, dividend payers, and the value premium the other day. I'll summarize the heart of the question: How do dividend [...]
Combining volatility, momentum, and trend in asset allocation
The Effective Combination of Risk-Based Strategies with Momentum and Trend Following Gregory Guilmin A version of the paper can be found here. Want a summary of [...]
Buffett On Economic Moats
In 2007, Warren Buffett gave an extended talk to a group of MBA students at the University of Florida. During it, Buffett spends some time talking [...]
Warren Buffett On LTCM, Blind Spots, Leverage, and Unnecessary Risk
In 2007, Warren Buffett gave an extended talk to a group of MBA students at the University of Florida. Below are some highlights: Question: You [...]
Combining Value and Momentum in Stock Selection and Market Timing
Recently, we wrote two posts about how to combine Value and Momentum for stock selection purposes (Part 1 and Part 2). We followed this piece with a post [...]
Avoiding the Big Drawdown with Trend-Following Investment Strategies
Simple timing rules, focused on absolute and trending asset class performance, seem to be useful in a downside protection context. Our analysis of the downside protection model (DPM), applied on various market indices, indicates there is a possibility of lowering maximum drawdown risk, while also offering a chance to participate in the upside associated with a given asset class. Important to note, applying the DPM to a portfolio will not eliminate volatility and the portfolio will deviate (perhaps wildly) from standard benchmarks. For many investors, these are risky propositions and should be considered when using a DPM construct.
Private Equity Replication with Leveraged Small-Cap Value Stocks
Of the major asset classes, private equity has recently had the best absolute returns. According to Cambridge Associates, the 25-year return on private equity was [...]
Expensive Junk Stocks are Killing High-Quality Value Stocks, YTD
In general, investors focused on affordable stocks with strong fundamentals have been taken to the cleaners year-to-date. Meanwhile, expensive stocks with poor fundamentals have been [...]
A Live Lesson in Value-Investing: The Energy Meltdown
We sat down and did a quick and dirty analysis of the S&P sector ETFs on a YTD basis and over the past 2 months. [...]
Ben Carlson on Active Investing, Value Investing, and Garage Sales
Yesterday we posted a review on Ben's new book, A Wealth of Common Sense. We reached out to Ben and conducted a follow up Q&A. [...]
Value Investing Research: O-Score and Distress Risk
Book-to-Market Equity, Distress Risk, and Stock Returns, by Griffin and Lemmon (2002 Journal of Finance) investigate the relationship between value premiums and distress risk. There [...]
How to Make Money in Markets: Understanding Expectation Errors
A new working paper from Gennaili, Ma, and the one-the-only Andrei Shleifer. Expectations and Investment Using micro data from Duke University quarterly survey of Chief [...]
High Dividend Stocks and Value Investing
Barron's recently ran an article (written by Research Affiliates), which is titled "Get Smart About Picking Dividend-Rich Stocks." The article highlights that high-quality high-dividend-paying stocks outperform [...]
Using Profitability as a Factor? Perhaps You Should Think Twice…
Many investors are getting excited about the so-called "profitability factor," originally posed by Novy-Marx (here is an alternative story) . Larry Swedroe has a high-level piece [...]