Tail Hedging Is Not As Easy As You Think
Convexity can provide explosive payoffs from unlikely events. It’s a powerful weapon to wield, but like most weapons, it could be inefficient or even dangerous in the hands of the untrained.
Economic Momentum
Strong empirical evidence demonstrates that momentum (both cross-sectional and time-series) provides information on the cross-section of returns of many risk assets and has generated alpha relative to existing asset pricing models.
Breaking Bad Momentum Trends
In their two papers, Goulding, Harvey, and Mazzoleni showed that observed market corrections and rebounds carry predictive information about subsequent returns and showed how that information could be utilized to enhance the performance of trend-following strategies by dynamically blending slow and fast momentum strategies based on four-state cycle-conditional information.
Betting on a Short Squeeze as Investment Strategy
Short squeezes are often associated with a large positive jump in the price of a stock. Filippou, Garcia-Ares, and Zapatero demonstrated that skewness-seeking investors try to identify securities that could experience a short squeeze in the near future and are willing to pay a premium for them. That results in an overvaluation of the options and, on average, negative returns. Investors are best served to avoid investments with lottery-like distributions. One way to do that is to turn a blind eye to social media sites like Robinhood and Reddit so you don’t get caught up in the hype and excitement. That’s another example of why retail investors are called “dumb money.” Forewarned is forearmed.
Cut Your Losses and Let Profits Run?
Be careful before acting on what is considered to be conventional wisdom. Make sure it’s supported by empirical evidence. In this case, the evidence makes clear that “cut your losses and let your profits run” should not be conventional wisdom.
Lottery Preference and Biotech Stocks: Trust the Financials, Not the Science
Making a bet on biotech/pharma firms that have not yet achieved significant revenue is the equivalent of buying a lottery ticket—with the same poor risk/return relationship.
On the Persistence of Growth and Value Stocks
While analysts underwrite high growth for companies that have grown quickly and slow growth for companies that have grown slowly in the past, a large body of evidence demonstrates that reversion to the mean of both positive and negative abnormal earnings growth is the norm.
Band of Brothers Attacking Short Sellers: Game Stop for Hedge Funds
Advisors and investors should be aware that fund families that invest systematically have found ways to incorporate the research findings on the limits to arbitrage and the evolving changes we have discussed to improve returns over those of a pure index replication strategy. It seems likely this will become increasingly important, as the markets have become less liquid, increasing the limits to arbitrage and allowing for more overpricing.
Global Factor Performance: February 2024
The following factor performance modules have been updated on our Index website.
Moving Average Distance and Time-Series Momentum
For investors that use trend-following strategies, Avramov, Kaplanski, and Subrhmanyam provided new evidence supporting momentum strategies and showed that the distance between short- and longer-term momentum signals provides additional explanatory power in the cross-section of equity returns.
Outperforming Cap- (Value-) Weighted and Equal-Weighted Portfolios
Antonello Cirulli and Patrick Walker, authors of the December 2023 study “Outperforming Equal Weighting,” examined whether equally weighted portfolios could be enhanced by avoiding negative exposure to some of the most prominent factor anomalies documented in asset pricing literature.
Financial Literacy in the US…Doesn’t look great!
This paper aims to analyze financial literacy in the United States, utilizing the most recent data from the National Financial Capability Study (NFCS) collected in 2021 by the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) Investor Education Foundation. The paper focuses on the importance of financial literacy, particularly in the context of the economic conditions in the US, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, inflation, and changes in the financial system.
Peer-Reviewed Theory and Expected Stock Returns
The risk-based explanation provided by a peer-based review is a necessary ingredient for considering investment, but it is not a sufficient ingredient.
Global Factor Performance: January 2024
Standardized Performance Factor Performance Factor Exposures Factor Premiums Factor Attribution Factor Data Downloads
Is a quantitative defensive factor strategy feasible? Yes.
We examine the research around the question of what the proper framework for building a defensive factor strategy is.
Crowded Trades Increase Crash Risks
Crowded equity positions in anomalies remain and have significant impacts in terms of risk and return dynamics.
Do racial barriers prevent Black and Hispanic households from pursuing financial advice?
This article seeks to examine what research says about the interplay between risk tolerance, financial literacy, and trust and their collective impact on the pursuit of financial advice by Black and Hispanic households.
The Financial Distress Puzzle
The empirical research findings demonstrate that the return premium generated by being long low-distress risk stocks and short high-distress risk stocks is persistent and that the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) and the Fama-French three-factor models cannot explain it. Hence, we have the distress puzzle, or anomaly.
Momentum Everywhere, Including Equity Options
Option returns display momentum, meaning that firms whose options performed well in the previous 6 to 36 months are likely to see high option returns in the next month as well.
The Temptation of Factor Timing
The timing of equity factor premiums has a strong allure for investors because academic research has found that factor premiums are both time-varying and dependent on the economic cycle.