Research Insights

The Determinants of Inflation

The findings from this Hidden Markov Model analysis provide policymakers with valuable insights into the nature and behavior of inflation regimes. This information can inform the design and implementation of monetary, fiscal, and regulatory policies to effectively manage inflation, stabilize the economy, and promote sustainable economic growth.

The Performance of Listed Private Equity

It is important to diversify the risks of private equity. This is best achieved by investing indirectly through a private equity fund rather than through direct investments in individual companies. Because most such funds typically limit their investments to a relatively small number, it is also prudent to diversify by investing in more than one fund. Unfortunately, the evidence we reviewed suggests that diversifying by investing in LPEs is not an effective strategy. And finally, top-notch funds are likely closed to most individual investors.

Flight to Safety in the Regional Bank Crisis of 2023

This article provides insights into the behavior of depositors and the role of large banks during a banking crisis, offering valuable implications for policymakers, regulators, and researchers in the field of banking and finance.

Wes Talks with Belle about Creating Your Own ETF

In this episode host Belle Osvath, CFP® talks with Dr. Wesley Gray the founder of ETF Architect and Alpha Architect, about how advisors can create their own ETFs which can be used to help manage client funds and taxes. They discuss the creation process, the cost, and what type of advisory practice would benefit the most from their own ETF.

Investor demand, rating reform and equity returns

The traditional financial theory attributes security returns to market- or factor-based risk, with no role ascribed to other influences. In this research, the authors argue for including investor demand as an additional variable in explaining returns.  Can changes in investor demand generate systematic changes in security returns?

The Quality Factor and the Low-Beta Anomaly

The empirical evidence demonstrates that returns to the low-beta anomaly are well explained by exposure to other common factors, and it has only justified investment when low-beta stocks were in the value regime, after periods of strong market and small-cap stock performance, and when they excluded high-beta stocks that had low short interest.

Doug Discusses 1042 QRP and ESOP Transactions

Doug Pugliese, the head of our 1042 QRP business, was recently invited on the ScuttleButt Podcast to discuss the ESOP landscape and the costs and benefits of 1042 QRP transactions. (article on the topic is here).

DIY Trend-Following Allocations: August 2023

Full exposure to domestic equities. Full exposure to international equities. Partial exposure to REITs. Partial exposure to commodities. No exposure to intermediate-term bonds.

Social Media and Inequality in Venture Capital Funding

The article aims to examine the role of social media in venture capital financing, its impact on disparities faced by underrepresented groups, and the mechanisms through which social media usage can facilitate venture capital funding.

Conditioning anomalies using retail attention metrics

By using a novel measure of investor attention, generated from InvestingChannel’s clickstream data on online financial news consumption, we can identify broad groups of stocks which are less efficiently priced and therefore where anomalies such as Value and Momentum are likely to produce greater cross sectional differentiation in returns.  We also apply these groupings to proprietary ExtractAlpha stock selection signals.

Regression is a tool that can turn you into a fool

Running regressions on past returns is a great tool for academic researchers who understand this approach's nuance, assumptions, pitfalls, and limitations. However, when factor regressions become part of a sales effort and/or are put in the hands of investors/advisors/DIYers, "the tool can quickly turn you into a fool."

Female execs bring more accuracy to analysts’ earnings forecasts

The results of this research extend the literature in a number of areas including: the analyst forecast literature; the literature on behavioral accounting and finance with respect to corporate decision-making all in the context of gender; and the dominant role of the CEO on information transparency.

Reducing the Risk of Momentum Crashes

The empirical research demonstrates that, on average, investing in previous winners and short selling previous losers offers highly significant returns that other common risk factors cannot explain. However, momentum also displays huge tail risk, as there are short but persistent periods of highly negative returns. Crashes occur particularly in reversals from bear markets when the momentum portfolio displays a negative market beta and momentum volatility is high.

Are Sustainable Investors Compensated Adequately?

Academic research has demonstrated that the higher risk associated with less sustainable firms should be compensated by higher returns. It also has shown that more sustainable firms have less investment risk.

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