Warren Buffett On LTCM, Blind Spots, Leverage, and Unnecessary Risk
In 2007, Warren Buffett gave an extended talk to a group of MBA students at the University of Florida. Below are some highlights: Question: You [...]
How Market Volatility Affects Our Brains
The current market volatility is justifiably causing people stress. Nobody wants to see their hard-earned wealth get vaporized. But how does increased stress affect decision-making? A [...]
Daily Academic Alpha: Fed Forecasts–Folly or Fact?
Macroeconomic forecasting is incredibly difficult. The results from this paper suggest that the brainpower of the Fed's 100 person economics team can predict 3 to 6 months out [...]
Rise of the Machines: Predicting Winners and Losers on the Robo-Advisor Battlefield
Robos are changing the landscape of financial services and consumers will reap the rewards. But will the computers replace humans? Unlikely. The psychology coach benefit is hard to replicate with a computer. However, robos will encourage human-based advisors to up their game. Slothosaurus will go extinct—thankfully! First iteration passive robo-advisors will create a lot of value for consumers, but capture little value for their VC investors, unless perhaps they are bought out. Finally, differentiated robo advisors and traditional advisors who embrace technology will score big wins for both consumers and their shareholders.
Combining Value and Momentum in Stock Selection and Market Timing
Recently, we wrote two posts about how to combine Value and Momentum for stock selection purposes (Part 1 and Part 2). We followed this piece with a post [...]
Crisis Alpha: Surprising Ways to Hedge Stock Portfolio Risk
Investing in the current environment is difficult. Most, if not all, asset classes have high nominal prices, suggesting low nominal expected returns. Not exactly exciting. [...]
The Sustainable Active Investing Framework: Simple, But Not Easy
We cannot overemphasize that identifying sustainable alpha in the market is no cakewalk. More importantly, being smart, having superior stock-picking skills, or amassing an army of PhDs to crunch data is only half of the equation. Even with those tools, you are still only one shark in a tank filled with other sharks. All sharks are smart, all sharks have a MBA or PhD from a fancy school, and all the sharks know how to analyze a company. Maintaining an edge in these shark infested waters is no small feat, and one that only a handful of investors has accomplished. In order to achieve sustainable success as an active investor, one needs not only skill, but also an understanding of human psychology, and an appreciation of market incentives (behavioral finance). We start our journey where mine began: as an aspiring PhD student studying at the University of Chicago. Let the adventure begin... This post is not meant to convert a passive investor into an active investor; however, we do explain why we believe active investing can sustainably beat passive strategies in the long run. Plus, we bring to bear many years of cumulative research and experience to support our arguments. We cannot overemphasize that alpha in the market is no cakewalk. More importantly, being smart, having superior stockpicking skills, or amassing an army of PhDs to crunch data is only half of the equation. Even with those tools, you are still only one shark in a tank filled with other sharks. All sharks are smart, all sharks have a MBA or PhD from a fancy school, and all the sharks know how to analyze a company. Maintaining an edge in these shark infested waters is no small feat, and one that only a handful (e.g., we can count them in one hand) of investors has successfully accomplished. In order too achieve sustainable success as an active investing, one needs both skill and an understanding of human psychology and market incentives (behavioral finance). We start our journey where mine began: as an aspiring PhD student studying under Eugene Fama at the University of Chicago. Let the adventure begin...
Avoiding the Big Drawdown with Trend-Following Investment Strategies
Simple timing rules, focused on absolute and trending asset class performance, seem to be useful in a downside protection context. Our analysis of the downside protection model (DPM), applied on various market indices, indicates there is a possibility of lowering maximum drawdown risk, while also offering a chance to participate in the upside associated with a given asset class. Important to note, applying the DPM to a portfolio will not eliminate volatility and the portfolio will deviate (perhaps wildly) from standard benchmarks. For many investors, these are risky propositions and should be considered when using a DPM construct.
Private Equity Replication with Leveraged Small-Cap Value Stocks
Of the major asset classes, private equity has recently had the best absolute returns. According to Cambridge Associates, the 25-year return on private equity was [...]
Expensive Junk Stocks are Killing High-Quality Value Stocks, YTD
In general, investors focused on affordable stocks with strong fundamentals have been taken to the cleaners year-to-date. Meanwhile, expensive stocks with poor fundamentals have been [...]
Daily Academic Alpha: Warren Buffett Market Predictions
Last week we had a fairly long post on a valuation based asset allocation strategy that might actually work. This post followed a couple of [...]
Betting Against Days to Cover
Days to Cover and Stock Returns Hong, Li, Ni, et al. A version of the paper can be found here. Want a summary of academic papers [...]
Algorithm Aversion — Why people don’t follow the model!
There are many studies showing that models beat experts, including the meta-study "Clinical versus mechanical prediction: A meta-analysis" by Grove et al. (2000). However, given [...]
One way to beat the market. Be different!
This study was inspired by Ben Carlson's blog post a few months ago. Ben highlights Robert Hagstrom's book "The Warren Buffett Portfolio." The high level question is [...]
P/E “Attention” Strategies Earn Monthly Excess Return of 1%!
Rankings of Published Pricing-earnings Ratios and Investor Attention Jordan Moore A version of the paper can be found here. Want a summary of academic papers with [...]
Eureka! A Valuation-Based Asset Allocation Strategy that Might Work
We've had a few posts showing that asset allocation systems relying on market valuation indicators (e.g., Shiller CAPE ratios) as a timing signal may end up [...]
Book Review: Cracking the Emerging Markets Enigma by Andrew Karolyi
A recent IMF World Economic Outlook survey projected that in 2015-2016 advanced economies will grow at 2%-2.5% rate, while emerging and developing markets are growing [...]
Daily Academic Alpha: Fresh Evidence on the Fama French 5-Factor Model
The past few weeks we've highlighted a set of research papers that go back and forth on the validity of the Fama and French "5-factor [...]
Daily Academic Alpha: Analyzing the Effects of Long-Term vs. Short-Term Investors
Through the traditional lens of the efficient market hypothesis, market prices stick close to their fundamental values because professional investors with large amounts of capital [...]
A Live Lesson in Value-Investing: The Energy Meltdown
We sat down and did a quick and dirty analysis of the S&P sector ETFs on a YTD basis and over the past 2 months. [...]