Low Beta/Vol Outperformance
There are many blogs/funds/research promoting low beta stocks as a way to get rich: A blog example --Falken A fund example --AQR Defensive Fund A [...]
Tactical Asset Allocation Series: Part 3 (Equal-Weight with Moving Averages)
This is the third part in our series on tactical asset allocation. In the series we highlight the equal-weight with moving average tactical asset allocation [...]
Predicted 10-Year returns from the Shiller P/E
A quick update on the Shiller P/E predictions--been a slew of articles/research on this recently: CXO Advisory Summary http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2172164 We've written fairly extensively on the [...]
Make 24bps a week trading skewness?
That is what Amaya, Christofferson, Jacobs, and Vasquez find. We use intraday data to compute weekly realized variance, skewness, and kurtosis for equity returns and [...]
Tactical Asset Allocation Series: Part 2 (Equal-Weight)
This is the second part in our series on tactical asset allocation. Our initial pieces outlined the basics of tactical asset allocation and offered some [...]
Dividing Value into “Priced” and “Mispriced”
Gerakos and Linnainmaa have a new paper out: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2083166 and http://www.asb.unsw.edu.au/schools/bankingandfinance/Documents/J.Gerakos,%20J.T.%20Linnainmaa%20-%20The%20Unpriced%20Side%20of%20Value.pdf Here is code to perform the decomposition: http://faculty.chicagobooth.edu/juhani.linnainmaa/ValueDecomposition.do Summary Book-to-market (BE/ME) ratios explain variation [...]
Tactical Asset Allocation Series: Part 1 (Introduction)
Anyone who has spent time pondering how to invest is undoubtedly familiar with the concept of diversification, which is a fundamental concept underlying modern portfolio [...]
Do Fund Managers Manipulate Prices? Say it ain’t so!
Bob Pisani was on CNBC this morning chatting about whether or not the NYSE will open tomorrow. One of the biggest concerns on Wall Street [...]
What happens when you think about finance too much
My uncle, who happens to a professional fisherman down in Mexico, just sent me a link to an article on sportfishing. http://www.bdoutdoors.com/article/fishing-cabo-san-lucas-mexico/ The article actually has [...]
Tactical Asset Allocation for Dummies
I was having lunch the other day with the Turnkey PhD and another business school professor, when the conversation turned to Tactical Asset Allocation (TAA). [...]
Natural Gas and Oil Spread: Opportunity or a Pain Trade?
The results are hypothetical results and are NOT an indicator of future results and do NOT represent returns that any investor actually attained. Indexes [...]
Share Repurchases and Market Efficiency–Dang!
The Persistence of Long-Run Abnormal Stock Returns: Evidence from Stock Repurchases and Offerings Fangjian Fu, Sheng Huang, and Hu Lin A version of the paper [...]
Applied Quantitative Value (Part 4 of 4)
I sat down with Wes Gray--who also contributes frequently on this blog under the title Wesley Gray, Ph.D.--and Toby Carlisle--who runs the great blog over [...]
Insider Trading Patterns: Isolated vs. Sequenced Trading
Insider Trading Patterns David Cicero, and M. Babajide Wintoki A version of the paper can be found here. Abstract: "We document two patterns of informed [...]
The Military Industrial Complex has Arrived
A bit off topic, but definitely should play into macroeconomic themes and theses. The 2011 highest income counties in 2011 from the WP. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/local/highest-income-counties/ The [...]
How to Identify High Quality Stocks, Continued (Part 3b of 4)
Suppose you had to sail across the Atlantic and were given a choice between making the crossing in either an 8 foot sailing dinghy, or [...]
Fight the Good Fight Against Fees, Tax Inefficiency
Everyone knows there is no such thing as a free lunch, but in investing you often have to pay for a lot more than just [...]
Cloud-Based Financial Advisers
Wall Street is VERY afraid! There are a wave of internet-based financial advisers working hard to save you fees. http://www.marketriders.com/ https://www.futureadvisor.com/learn_more https://www.wealthfront.com/ The Quick Math: [...]
Long Bonds–Long or Short?
Timely Portfolio has a great post about the magical long-bond. http://timelyportfolio.blogspot.tw/2012/08/bonds-much-sharpe-r-than-buffett.html The thesis he presents is clear: long bonds won't achieve what they've achieved over the past [...]
How to Identify High Quality Stocks (Part 3a of 4)
What does it mean to measure a business’ “quality” in the context of investing in common stocks? We try to answer this question in Part [...]