Using Trend-Following Rules to Enhance Factor Performance
After reviewing the 2016 performance of trend-following (-18.15%), its unclear why anyone would mention the word "trend following" in a public forum. But we'll give it [...]
Earth to Passive Investors: Lunch is Never Free.
Imagine the following scenario: A strategy that outperforms everything. An ability to scale the strategy at no costs. A beating drum highlighting the infallible logic [...]
The Rebalance Bonus for Value and Momentum Porfolios
A sophisticated DFA-focused advisor asked us to conduct some research on the following question: Are there additional portfolio diversification benefits to combining concentrated portfolios of value and [...]
What is the best “Risk-Off” Asset for Trend-Followers?
So you're a trend-follower. Great. But here is a question: What do you invest in when your rules suggest "risk off?" Many investors suggest low [...]
Tactical Asset Allocation: A Practitioner’s Defense of Return Predictability
The prospect of being able to successfully anticipate and predict future market returns is irresistible to practitioners and academics alike, although success has proven elusive. Many [...]
Time Series Momentum and Volatility Scaling
There is a new paper published in the Journal of Financial Markets that digs a bit deeper into the Moskowitz, Ooi, and Pedersen "Time Series [...]
Managed Futures: Understanding a Misunderstood Diversification Tool.
In my two previous blog posts (here and here), I analyze the performance of bonds during really bad months for US stocks (“Crisis Alpha” months), [...]
Can Investors Replicate the Dorsey Wright Focus 5 ETF Strategy?
A long-time reader asked that we examine the performance and process associated with the Dorsey Wright Focus Five ETF (ticker: FV). For those who are unfamiliar [...]
Evidence-Based Investing Requires Less Religion and More Reason
Technical Analysis: The Market’s Oldest Religion During the 1600s, the Dutch had a large merchant fleet and the port city of Amsterdam was a dominant [...]
The Folly of Stock Market Forecasting
The idea that one can predict stock market movements is somewhat insane. The major problem with stock market forecasting is the lack of evidence that it [...]
Digging Deeper into Adaptive Asset Allocation
In some ways, investing is simple. After all, we all want the same things. High returns. Low volatility. Small max drawdowns. Unfortunately, it's very difficult--if [...]
The Moving Average Research King: Valeriy Zakamulin
Some weekend reading for trend-followers who want to question their beliefs. Valeriy Zakamulin is an animal when it comes to generating research on moving averages. [...]
Even God would get fired as an Active Investor
Perfect foresight has great returns, but gut-wrenching drawdowns. In other words, an active investor who was clairvoyant (i.e. "God"),[ref]We mean no offense by the use [...]
‘Tis the Season for strange effects in the stock market.
The efficient market hypothesis suggests that stock prices are always “right” in the sense that stock prices reflect all available information. Of course, during tax [...]
Expanding the Efficient Frontier with Value and Momentum Strategies
Awww...modern portfolio theory...that feel-good construct I teach to all of my graduate-level finance students each year. Simply input 1) a vector of expected returns and [...]
DIY Asset Allocation Weights: December 2015
Do-It-Yourself tactical asset allocation weights are posted. Create a free account here if you want to access the site directly. Sign in here if you already have a [...]
Trend Following and Momentum Strategies for Global REITs
Trend Following and Momentum Strategies for Global REITs Moss, Clare, Thomas and Seaton A version of the paper can be found here. Want a summary of [...]
Bond Performance when Interest Rates Spike
The prediction of higher interest rates has been ongoing since the government went all-in on a variety of so-called "inflationary" efforts. Inflation hasn't happened and rates are [...]
The World’s Longest Trend-Following Backtest
Were in the middle of an academic research project and we ran a simple long-term trend-following model from January 1, 1801 to September 30, 2015. Recently, [...]
Which Asset Allocation Weights Work the Best?
What is the optimal method to weigh an index? Everyone seems to have a story these days for the "best" way to weigh an index. In this study we look at simple ways to weigh a large-cap stock index using prices only. Bottom-line up front: Low volatility worked the best on a risk-adjusted basis over the past 87 years. However, low volatility, was close followed by momentum, equal-weighting, and value-weighting, respectively. Across the board, results are similar.