Machine Learning and The Cross-Section of Emerging Market Stock Returns
The paper documents that return forecasts from machine learning methods lead to superior out-of-sample returns in emerging markets.
Global Factor Performance: December 2022
Standardized Performance Factor Performance Factor Exposures Factor Premiums Factor Attribution Factor Data Downloads
Volatility scaling is useful for factor timing
This paper investigates the effects of volatility scaling on factor portfolio performance and factor timing.
The “Resurrected” Size Effect and Monetary Policy
Given that tightening monetary policy increases economic risks, Simpson and Grossman provided compelling evidence of a risk explanation for the size factor. For those investors who engage in tactical asset allocation strategies (market timing), their evidence suggests that it might be possible to exploit the information. Before jumping to that conclusion, I would caution that because markets are forward-looking, they should anticipate periods of Fed tightening and the heightened risks of small stocks.
Investing in Deflation, Inflation, and Stagflation Regimes
In this article, we examine the research on investing during inflationary regimes such as deflation, inflation, and stagflation. Factors perform relatively well in all regimes on a real basis.
Trend Following and Relative Sentiment: Complementary Factors
Since it is likely that both the Relative Sentiment and Trend Following strategies will underperform at some points in the future, “a 50-50 combination of TF and RS might reduce the emotional volatility an investor may experience from holding only the underperforming strategy.”
DIY Trend-Following Allocations: December 2022
No exposure to domestic equities. Partial exposure to international equities. No exposure to REITs. Full exposure to commodities. No exposure to intermediate-term bonds.
Want to Get on a Corporate Board? Who You Know Matters
Here's what the research says about how to get on a board of directors.
Does Momentum work in Option Markets?
This paper explores the question of option momentum by examining what the research says about the performance of option investments across different stocks.
Optimal Trend Following Rules in Two-State Regime-Switching Models
We examine trend-following rules when the stock returns follow a two-state process that randomly switches between bull and bear markets.
Active Managers are Subject to the Same Biases as Individual Investors
Are active managers victims of the same bias as individual investors? That is the question we’ll explore in this paper.
Is there a theoretical foundation behind industry and factor momentum
Industry and factor momentum should be viewed as recent developments in the wider momentum story, although these aggregated measures of momentum lack any theoretical foundation.
The Role of the Secular Decline in Interest Rates in Asset Pricing Anomalies
Jules van Binsbergen, Liang Ma and Michael Schwert, authors of the September 2022 study “The Factor Multiverse: The Role of Interest Rates in Factor Discovery,” posed an interesting question: Are the findings of at least some of the reported anomalies the direct result of the 40-year secular decline in global interest rates and thus not really anomalies?
Global Factor Performance: November 2022
Standardized Performance Factor Performance Factor Exposures Factor Premiums Factor Attribution Factor Data Downloads
The Cross Section of Stock Returns Pre-CRSP data: Value and Momentum are confirmed as robust anomalies
We study the cross-section of stock returns using a novel constructed database of U.S. stocks covering 61 years of independent data.
Why Advisors (and Family Offices) Should Consider Creating their Own ETFs
Independent RIA firms seek to do what is "right" for the client, which often boils down to minimizing fees and taxes and increasing transparency/education (i.e., ETFs). But the "right" solution for an advisor's clients might not be available 'off-the-shelf' in the ETF market, or the advisor can't use ETFs because they are stuck "managing around" legacy portfolios and tax problems.
What's the solution? Allow advisors to create their own ETFs, which can be customized to deliver the specific investment program the advisor desires and allows an advisor to offer unique solutions for legacy tax issues tied to low-basis securities.
Market Risk and Speculative Factors
Soroush Ghazi and Mark Schneider authors of the August 2022 study “Market Risk and Speculation Factors” decomposed the excess market return (the equity risk premium) into speculative (in the simple sense that it is negative, reflecting a premium investors pay to hold assets that are more subject to speculative demand) and non-speculative, or risk (in the simple sense that it is positive, a necessary characteristic for a factor to reflect compensation for risk) components.
DIY Trend-Following Allocations: November 2022
No exposure to domestic equities. No exposure to international equities. No exposure to REITs. Full exposure to commodities. No exposure to intermediate-term bonds.
Momentum Factor Investing: 30 years of Out of Sample Data
In this article, the author examines the research published over the last 30 years on momentum and its theoretical credibility. One of the original momentum articles was published by Jegadeesh and Titman in 1993, and is considered the seminal work on the topic. The research review contained in this publication begins with the 1993 work and confines itself to only the highest quality journals among the plethora of work that has been published on momentum.
Mind the Momentum Gap to Improve Performance
This article discusses the academic research about the Momentum Gap and the role that its predictive potential may have in reducing momentum crashes, hence possibly improving performance.