Black Friday, Retailers and the Availability Heuristic
The term “Black Friday” has been used for many years to describe the day after Thanksgiving, which for retailers marks the beginning of the holiday [...]
“Better Information” Does Not Equate to Better Returns
The value of information in a multi-agent market model Bence Toth, Enrico Scalas, Jurgen Huber and Michael Kirchler A version of the paper can be [...]
Mean Regression and the Value Anomaly
For many investors, it is an article of faith that value investing is the best approach to investing in public equities. Value investors, who are [...]
The Case for Systematic Decision-Making
?? Homo Economicus versus Homo Sapiens Dick Thaler and Cass Sustein in their NY TIMES bestseller, NUDGE, describe two people in the world: Econs and [...]
Recommending the Trend: a Behavioral Basis for Momentum Strategies
As many investors know, Eugene Fama developed the efficient-market hypothesis (EMH) at the University of Chicago in the 60s, and it subsequently flourished across academia. [...]
Models vs. Experts #13: Let the Computer Decide who is Suicidal?
A probabilistic system for identifying suicide attempters Gustafson, D. H., Greist, J. H., etal Computers and Biomedical Research, I0, 1-7 An online version of the [...]
Models vs. Experts #12: Modeled Human Judgement beats Human Judgement. Huh?
Man versus Model of man: A rational, plus some evidence, for a method of improving on clinical inferences Goldberg, L. R. Psychological Bulletin, 73, 422-432 [...]
Models vs. Experts # 11: Simple models beating the experts
The search for configural relationships in personality assessment: The diagnosis of psychosis vs. neurosis from the MMPI Goldberg, L. R. Multivariate Behavioral Research, 4, 523-536 [...]
Models vs. Experts #10: Lung Function tests
Comparison of reports on lung function tests made by chest physicians with those made by a simple computer program Geddes, D. M., Green, M., & [...]
Sadness Screws up Financial Decisions–Be Happy!
The Financial Costs of Sadness Lerner JS, Li Y, Weber EU A version of the paper can be found here. Want a summary of academic papers [...]
Quant Robots Draw Blood and the “Human Touch” Bias
It is hard enough to let a computer take control of your investment decisions. I think there is an innate comfort to human interaction. Let's [...]
SAC Capital Advisors: What You See is All There Is
The Justice Department filed criminal charges yesterday against SAC Capital Advisors, accusing the multi-billion dollar hedge fund of securities and wire fraud. What's interesting is [...]
Why aren’t you a slave to an algorithm?
http://www.aeonmagazine.com/world-views/steven-poole-can-algorithms-ever-take-over-from-humans/ A great article by Steven Poole. He highlights what Turnkey readers are slowing learning via our Models vs. Experts series: Speaking to the evidence [...]
Models vs. Experts #9: Diagnosing Acute Abdominal Pain
Computer-aided diagnosis of acute abdominal pain De Dombal, F. T., Leaper, D. J., Staniland, J. R., McCann, A. P., & Horrocks, J. C. British Medical [...]
Models vs. Experts #8: Graduate School Admissions
A case study of graduate admissions: Application of three principles of human decision making Dawes, R. M. American Psychologist, 26, 180-188 An online version of [...]
Models vs. Experts #7: Job Analysis
A comparison of holistic and decomposed judgment strategies in job analyses by job incumbents synthesis Cornelius, E. T., & Lyness, K. S. Journal of Applied [...]
Complexity ==> Confusion and Dysfunction
A heartwarming paragraph from a paper I'm reading: Miller (1956) argued that there are definite limitations on the number of conceptual units that humans can [...]
Models vs. Experts #6: Predicting Male Psychological Disturbance
MMPI in actuarial diagnosis of psychological disturbance among college males Cooke, J. K. Journal of Counseling Psychology, 14, 474-477 A version of the paper can [...]
Models vs. Experts #5: Health Care Protocol
Experience with a computerized interactive protocol system using HELP Cannon, S. R., & Gardner, R. M. Computers in Biomedical Research,13, 399-409. A version of the [...]
Models vs. Experts #4: Electrocardiogram
Performance of the computer and physician in the analysis of the electrocardiogram Caceres, C. A., & Hochberg, H. H. American Heart Journal, 79, 439-443 A [...]