Models vs. Experts #3: Advertising Sales Predictions
A Field Test of Implications of Laboratory Studies of Decision Making Ashton, A. H. The Accounting Review, 59, 361-375 A version of the paper can [...]
Models vs. Experts #2: Rorschach interpretation
Unsuccessful differential diagnosis from the Rorschach Armitage, S. G., & Pearl, D. Journal of Consulting Psychology, 21. 479-484 A version of the paper can be [...]
Models vs. Experts #1: College GPA predictions
Predictive efficiency of two multivariate statistical techniques in comparison with clinical predictions Alexakos, C.E. Journal of Educational Psychology, 57, 207-306 A version of the paper can [...]
More Information=More Confidence=More Problems
Effects of amount of information on judgment accuracy and confidence Claire I. Tsai, Joshua Klayman, Reid Hastie A version of the paper can be found here. [...]
Simple Models Beat Experts: Even in Investment!
One of the more fascinating findings from psychology research is the empirical finding that simple models often beat experts. In other words, insights from your [...]
CEO Voice Pitch–Deeper Voice; deeper pockets
Just when you thought academics were not wasting their time doing incredibly useless research, along comes this intriguing research: Voice Pitch Predicts Labor Market Success [...]
What happens when you think about finance too much
My uncle, who happens to a professional fisherman down in Mexico, just sent me a link to an article on sportfishing. http://www.bdoutdoors.com/article/fishing-cabo-san-lucas-mexico/ The article actually has [...]
Analyzing Speech to Detect Financial Misreporting
Analyzing Speech to Detect Financial Misreporting Jessen L. Hobson, William J. Mayew, Mohan Venkatachalam A version of the paper can be found here. Abstract: "We [...]
The Death of Twitter Trading?
Almost a year ago, we posted a few articles on strategies focused on using Twitter as a mechanism to trade stocks. Our basic conclusion was [...]
Gain and Loss Learning: Effects on Life Financial Outcomes
“From shirtsleeves to shirtsleeves in three generations.” - Andrew Carnegie Since time immemorial, humans have wondered at the factors that give rise to the accumulation [...]
The Framing Effect and Your Portfolio
When individuals try to understand or explain an event, they sometimes employ “frames,” which are interpretive structures or filters that help them make sense of [...]
Neuroeconomics Post! The Endocrine System and Shifting Risk Preferences
The Chinese philosopher Sun Tzu counseled us to "know thine enemy." At Alpha Architect we are always curious about anything that affects our financial decision making, [...]
Debunking Semi-Strong Market Efficiency
Contagious Speculation and a Cure for Cancer: A Nonevent that Made Stock Prices Soar Gur huberman and Tomer RegevA recent version of the paper can [...]
Evolution and the Overconfidence Phenomenon
Many have questioned why overconfidence might exist in human populations when it can lead to suboptimal outcomes such as wars or, say, financial collapse. Common [...]
Decision Fatigue
All of us are faced every day with a myriad of choices, but if you’re like me, you don’t spend much time thinking about how [...]
Mr. Market and Joe Pesci
We here at Turnkey Analyst are big fans of Ben Graham, and are stalwart believers in the enduring relevance of Graham’s famous character, Mr. Market, [...]
Textual Analysis and Trading Strategies
When is a Liability not a Liability? Textual Analysis, Dictionaries, and 10-Ks. Tim Loughran and Bill McDonald A published version of the paper can be [...]
Is Trading with Twitter only for Twits?
Tweets and Trades: The Information Content of Stock Microblogs Timm Sprenger and Isabell Welpe A version of the paper can be found here. Abstract: Microblogging [...]
Disasters and Investing
Sentiment and Stock Prices: The Case of Aviation Disasters Guy Kaplanski and Kaim Levy A version of the paper can be found here. Abstract: Behavioral economic [...]
Talking Your Book–Make it Part of Your Investment Program
"We study how professional investors use social networks to impound price-relevant information into asset prices. Exploiting novel data from an online social network that facilitates information sharing among fund managers, we find that long (short) recommendations released into the private network generate cumulative abnormal returns of 3.61% (-4.90%) over a twenty-day window. These results suggest that social networks play a direct role in facilitating the price discovery process."