Dan Callahan

Buy and “Hold On for Dear Life”? Think Again!

Today, phrases like “HODL” and “buy the dip” have become rallying cries for equity investors. But is this mindset always correct? Could there come a time when buying dips or holding at all costs turns out to be a mistake? To dig deeper, let’s look at insights from Michael Mauboussin and Dan Callahan’s recent paper, Drawdowns & Recoveries: Base Rates for Bottoms and Bounces, and consider what the evidence tells us about the nature of drawdowns and recoveries.

Investing Isn’t About Being Mostly Right 

Investing isn’t about being mostly right. In fact you can be mostly wrong and beat portfolios that were mostly right! Today, we’ll explore how investors can potentially improve portfolio outcomes by targeting two seemingly contradictory but deeply complementary systems as outlined in the latest Mauboussin-Callahan paper, Probabilities & Payoffs: The Practicality and Psychology of Expected Value. But understanding this counterintuitive reality requires a shift in mindset—one that embraces uncertainty and focuses on the power of diversification.

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