Combining Value and Momentum in Stock Selection and Market Timing
Recently, we wrote two posts about how to combine Value and Momentum for stock selection purposes (Part 1 and Part 2). We followed this piece with a post [...]
About Jack Vogel, PhD
Jack Vogel, Ph.D., conducts research in empirical asset pricing and behavioral finance, and is a co-author of DIY FINANCIAL ADVISOR: A Simple Solution to Build and Protect Your Wealth. His dissertation investigates how behavioral biases affect the value anomaly. His academic background includes experience as an instructor and research assistant at Drexel University in both the Finance and Mathematics departments, as well as a Finance instructor at Villanova University. Dr. Vogel is currently a Managing Member of Alpha Architect, LLC, an SEC-Registered Investment Advisor, where he heads the research department and serves as the Chief Financial Officer. He has a PhD in Finance and a MS in Mathematics from Drexel University, and graduated summa cum laude with a BS in Mathematics and Education from The University of Scranton.Algorithm Aversion — Why people don’t follow the model!
There are many studies showing that models beat experts, including the meta-study "Clinical versus mechanical prediction: A meta-analysis" by Grove et al. (2000). However, given [...]
Market timing with Value and Momentum
Yesterday we wrote a post showing a potential way to time the market using valuation-based signals. In the past we have also examined how to use [...]
High Dividend Stocks and Value Investing
Barron's recently ran an article (written by Research Affiliates), which is titled "Get Smart About Picking Dividend-Rich Stocks." The article highlights that high-quality high-dividend-paying stocks outperform [...]
The “hot hand” in basketball. New evidence!
For years, the "hot hand" in basketball has been declared a "fallacy." To be clear, the "hot hand" argument is that basketball players have streaks, where [...]
Momentum Investing: Skewness-enhanced Momentum Yields Double Alpha
Expected Skewness and Momentum Jacobs, Regele and Weber A version of the paper can be found here. Want a summary of academic papers with alpha? Check [...]
How to Combine Value Investing and Momentum Investing (Part 2/2)
We find that sorting stocks on value and then momentum has been a historically successful strategy. However, sorting stocks on value and then quality, which is inline with a fundamental value philosophy, works just as well, if not better. We hypothesize that the "momentum" effect identified within the cheap stocks bucket, is really a proxy for strong fundamentals and positive operational momentum among the cheapest, highest quality value stocks. Our preference--based on empirical and philosophical grounds--is to go with a more "pure" value philosophy that focuses on buying the cheapest, highest quality value stocks, as opposed to a muddled value approach that buys the cheapest, highest momentum value stocks.
Momentum Investing: A Simple Bond Momentum Strategy
Quick Summary For a bond momentum strategy, it makes sense to select the top 3 or top 6 funds.The starting universe matters.One must consider the taxes and [...]
Sports Analytics: Remember, Statistics aren’t Perfect!
We came across an interesting article in the Wharton Magazine blog titled "The Dangerous Data Fetishes of Sports Analytics" by Ian Cooper. The main point of [...]
Absolute Momentum and Stock Momentum Strategies: Friends, not enemies
There is sometimes confusion associated with so-called "momentum" strategies--we want to clear the muddy waters. We break momentum into two categories to differentiate between the different [...]
How to Combine Value and Momentum Investing Strategies
The evidence suggests that we keep highly active exposures to value and momentum in their purest forms (assuming we are doing high-conviction non-watered down versions of the anomalies). Blending the strategy dilutes the benefit of value and momentum portfolios. The summary of the benefits of a pure value and a pure momentum approach can be summarized as follows: Easier ex-post assessment, stronger portfolio diversification benefits, and stronger expected performance.
Momentum Research: Main Embarrassment of the FF 3-Factor Model
Multifactor Explanations of Asset Pricing Anomalies Fama and French (1996) A version of the paper can be found here. Want a summary of academic papers with [...]
How Rebalancing Frequency Affects Quality and Value investing funds
Rebalance frequency affects value and quality factors in different ways: Value works better when assessed more frequently Quality factors work about the same, regardless of frequently. Other important [...]
Trusting an Advisor Costs Big Money, but Lowers Stress
Money Doctors Gennaioli, Shleifer, and Vishny (2015) A version of the paper can be found here. Want a summary of academic papers with alpha? Check out our Academic [...]
Market Valuations based on CAPE–A Deeper Dive
We have discussed market valuations in the past, but the issue of market valuations was recently raised on CNBC, when Robert Shiller suggested he may shift out [...]
Quantitative Momentum Research: Price and Earnings Momentum
Momentum Strategies Chan, Jegadeesh and Lakonishok A version of the paper can be found here. Want a summary of academic papers with alpha? Check out our Academic [...]
The Big Game and Hindsight Bias
After watching the post-game commentary after the Big Game, it appears that many commentators may have been suffering from Hindsight Bias. Numerous "experts" claimed that [...]
Football, PSI, and the Big Game
The past 2 weeks there has been some controversy around the so-called "Deflate-gate," where the N.E. Patriots were accused of intentionally deflating the footballs to [...]
Predict Stock Returns Using the TREND of Profitability
The Trend in Firm Profitability and the Cross Section of Stock Returns Akbas, Jiang and Koch A version of the paper can be found here. Want [...]
Why Indexing and “Smart Beta” Are So Popular
Asset Manager Contracts and Equilibrium Prices Buffa, Vayanos, and Woolley (2014) A version of the paper can be found here. Want a summary of academic papers [...]