Trend following is finally moving while U.S. stocks are flat. And so—like with most assets or strategies that post strong returns—investors may be eyeing this particular strategy and asking: Is it time to get in? The answer, while not surprising, is definitely nuanced.
Long volatility should be considered a factor that earns positive returns over the long term. At least that's what One River Asset Management’s Patrick Kazley suggests in his piece "Heretical Thinking: The Long Volatility Premium"
Buffer ETFs have become one of the fastest-growing product lines in finance. But what risks are buffer investors carrying without realizing it? Let's zoom in on the two areas where they fall short and propose potential solutions that seek to address these issues.
On the surface, buffer ETFs appear attractive: they seek to capture some upside while mitigating a portion of losses. However, this does not mean they are risk-free. In fact, under certain market conditions, these products can significantly underperform.
Our friends Corey Hoffstein and Rodrigo Gordillo over at Return Stacked have done some interesting research on the potential for gold to improve your run-of-the-mill [...]
A longstanding belief in market finance is that short-term funding markets like repo are relatively stable and transparent. But this new research turns that idea on its head.
Handy and Meksi provided a clear warning: relying on past performance to select CTAs is a strategy fraught with risk, largely due to behavioral biases that distort our perception of skill and persistence. For investors, the lesson is to stay humble, diversify, and focus on robust processes rather than chasing yesterday’s winners.
Convexity can provide explosive payoffs from unlikely events. It’s a powerful weapon to wield, but like most weapons, it could be inefficient or even dangerous in the hands of the untrained.
Investors care about more than just returns. They also care about risk. Thus, prudent investors include consideration of strategies that can provide at least some protection against adverse events that lead to left tail risk (portfolios crashing). The cost of that protection (the impact on expected returns) must play an important role in deciding whether to include them. For example, buying at-the-money puts, a strategy that eliminates downside risk, should have returns no better than the risk-free rate of return, making that a highly expensive strategy.
Who among us wouldn't want to be the savior that predicts a market crisis and saves our clients from losses in capital -- or even better -- profits from them? A central topic of interest for academics is whether there are more precise tools to predict financial crises. Those who believe so dedicate their efforts to finding early warning indicators.
Negative outcomes from unconditional long exposure to the VIX led Campasano to examine the performance of an Enhanced Portfolio that dynamically invests in the S&P 500 Index and VIX futures.
Liquidity—the ability to buy and sell significant quantities of a given asset quickly, at low cost, and without a major price concession—is valuable to investors. [...]
Arnold Polanski, Evarist Stoja, Frank WindmeijerJournal of Applied Econometrics, 2019A version of this paper can be found here.Want to read our summaries of academic finance [...]
Gold, the Golden Constant, COVID-19, "massive Passives," and Déjà Vu Claude Erb, Campbell R. Harvey, Tadas ViskantaA version of this paper can be found here.Want [...]
Some Observations on Trend Following: A Binomial Perspective David M. ModestWorking Paper, QLS Partners LPA version of this paper can be found hereWant to read our [...]
Richard D.F. Harris , Linh H. Nguyen and Evarist Stoja Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions, and Money, 2019A version of this paper can be [...]
It has been well documented both that stock returns have much fatter tails than a normal distribution would generate, and that tail events occur much [...]
Given the recent market decline, we thought it would be helpful to review some of our blog posts from the past that may be relevant [...]
The Best of Strategies for the Worst of Times: Can Portfolios Be Crisis Proofed? Campbell R. Harvey, Edward Hoyle, Sandy Rattray, Matthew Sargaison, Dan Taylor, [...]
Pathetic Protection: the Elusive Benefits of Protective Puts Roni IsraelovJournal of Alternative Investments, Winter 2019A version of this paper can be found hereWant to read our summaries of academic [...]
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