Over 75% of the cross-sectional variation in P/E ratios is driven by future return differences, not growth expectations. This challenges many common asset pricing models and changes how investors should think about value, growth, and long-term return forecasting.
Profitability subsumes all of the quality factor, explaining both the performance of the strategies the investment industry market and the factors that academics employ—none of the quality factors generated significant positive alpha relative to profitability, the other Fama and French factors, and momentum.
There is strong empirical evidence demonstrating that momentum (both cross-sectional and time-series) provides information on the cross-section of returns of many risk assets and has generated alpha relative to existing asset pricing models. Ma, Yang, and Ye’s findings provide another test of both robustness and pervasiveness, increasing our confidence that the findings of momentum in asset prices are not a result of data mining.
We examine the research around the question of what the proper framework for building a defensive factor strategy is.
The empirical research findings demonstrate that the return premium generated by being long low-distress risk stocks and short high-distress risk stocks is persistent and that the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) and the Fama-French three-factor models cannot explain it. Hence, we have the distress puzzle, or anomaly.
There are various measures of value and quality, with one being Marx’s gross profits-to-assets.
Factor strategies need to be rebalanced in order to maintain their factor exposure. But different factors decay at different rates and this affects how they should be rebalanced. For example, momentum needs to be rebalanced more than value. This study digs into these questions.
It is well documented in the literature that over the long term, low-investment firms have outperformed high-investment firms—with the negative relation between asset growth (AG) and future stock returns particularly featured by the overvaluation of high AG stocks.
Since the 1992 publication of “The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns” by Eugene Fama and Kenneth French factor-based strategies and products have become an integral part of the global asset management landscape. While “top-down” allocation to factor premiums (such as size, value, momentum, quality, and low volatility) has become mainstream, questions remain about how to efficiently gain exposure to these premiums. Today, many generic factor products, often labeled as “smart beta”, completely disregard the impact of other factors when constructing portfolios with high exposures to any single factor. However, recent research, such as 2019 study “The Characteristics of Factor Investing” by David Blitz and Milan Vidojevic, has shown that single-factor portfolios, which invest in stocks with high scores on one particular factor, can be suboptimal because they ignore the possibility that these stocks may be unattractive from the perspective of other factors that have demonstrated that they also have higher expected returns.
Investors care about more than just returns. They also care about risk. Thus, prudent investors include consideration of strategies that can provide at least some protection against adverse events that lead to left tail risk (portfolios crashing). The cost of that protection (the impact on expected returns) must play an important role in deciding whether to include them. For example, buying at-the-money puts, a strategy that eliminates downside risk, should have returns no better than the risk-free rate of return, making that a highly expensive strategy.
My October 29, 2020, article for Alpha Architect examined the research on the profitability factor. I then reviewed the findings of the June 2020 study [...]
Asset pricing models are important because they help us understand which factors explain the variation of returns across diversified portfolios. However, models are not like [...]
The existence of a quality premium in stocks that has been persistent over time, pervasive around the globe, and robust to various definitions have been [...]
Investing is never easy, but some times are easier than others. Buying US government bonds at 10%+ yields when inflation was steadily decreasing in the [...]
Robert Novy-Marx’s 2013 paper “ The Other Side of Value: The Gross Profitability Premium” not only provided investors with new insights into the cross-section of [...]
Trying to avoid value traps.
While the quality factor has been identified in the literature (including papers such as “Buffett’s Alpha,” “Global Return Premiums on Earnings Quality, Value, and Size,” [...]
What is Quality? Jason Hsu , Vitali Kalesnik , and Engin Kose Financial Analysts JournalA version of this paper can be found hereWant to read our [...]
The Best of Strategies for the Worst of Times: Can Portfolios Be Crisis Proofed? Campbell R. Harvey, Edward Hoyle, Sandy Rattray, Matthew Sargaison, Dan Taylor, [...]
The Best of Strategies for the Worst of Times: Can Portfolios Be Crisis Proofed? Campbell R. Harvey, Edward Hoyle, Sandy Rattray, Matthew Sargaison, Dan Taylor, [...]
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