Do-It-Yourself tactical macro modules for August are posted. Create a free account here if you want to access the site directly. Macro Chart of the Month: Equity/bond risk premiums are mid range on a historical scale... Disclosures: Performance [...]
It appears Japanese monetary policy is beginning to resemble Kabuki. Kabuki is a form of Japanese theater that involves stylized performances that can appear positively bizarre to the uninitiated. So it goes with the Bank [...]
Depends on the time period analyzed... Positive correlation between rates and REIT returns prior to 2000 Negative correlation post 2000. Extreme positive interest rate moves have historically been associated with extreme positive AND negative returns. [...]
Are Stocks Cheap? A Review of the Evidence Fernando Duarte and Carlo Rosa A version of the paper can be found here. Want a summary of academic papers with alpha? Check out our free Academic Alpha Database! [...]
Prediction stock market returns--a fascinating concept. A true magical talent. Of course, we've put some of our brainpower (a limited resource!) on the subject and come up with a few observations on the subject: http://alphaarchitect.com/2012/11/predicted-10-year-returns-from-the-shiller-pe/ [...]
A bit off topic, but definitely should play into macroeconomic themes and theses. The 2011 highest income counties in 2011 from the WP. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/local/highest-income-counties/ The beast has been fed--good luck taking away its food! Not [...]
Reinhart (and another Reinhart) and Rogoff have another paper in their series about "Why debt sucks." The title of their newest work is "Debt Overhangs: Past and Present." Headline: We identify the major public debt [...]
Measuring Economic Growth from Outer Space Vernon Henderson, Adam Storeygard, and David Weil. A recent version of the paper can be found here. Abstract: GDP growth is often measured poorly for countries and rarely measured [...]
Demographic Changes, Financial Markets, and the Economy Robert Arnott and Denis Chaves A version of the paper can be found here. Abstract: It seems natural that the shifting composition of a nation’s population ought to [...]
