Research Insights

Do we invest like our family members?

This study adds evidence to the literature of social interaction by confirming empirically that investors acquire investment ideas from their family members.

Negative Screening and the Sin Premium

While most sin stocks in the IC method were also identified as sin in the TA method, there were 57 firm-year cases where a company showed up as sin only in the IC method—these were false positive sin stocks as identified in the IC method.

DIY Trend-Following Allocations: June 2023

Partial exposure to domestic equities. Full exposure to international equities. No exposure to REITs. No exposure to commodities. Partial exposure to intermediate-term bonds.

Intangible-Adjusted Profitability Factor

Not accounting for intangibles affects not just value metrics but other measures (such as profitability) that often scale by book value or total assets, both of which are affected by intangibles—and investors recognize at least some of their value.

Submergence: A Tool to Assess Drawdowns and Recoveries

According to research by the authors, stocks and bonds have been submerged for about 75% of the time since 1980; and treasuries have been submerged 80% of the time. Submergences are therefore both commonplace and significant, which means that handling them is very important for investors and their investing strategies.

Gold as a Safe-Haven Asset

I’ve received calls from clients inquiring about moving assets to gold. When I asked them why, three reasons dominated.

Reducing the Impact of Momentum Crashes

Momentum crashes are a blight on the performance of momentum strategies. Although there has been a fair amount of research on the topic, few practical solutions have emerged to mitigate the impact on portfolios. In this study, the authors document the outperformance of stocks, in terms of momentum, far away from their peak position relative to stocks very near their peaks. Turns out the outperformance is very large. It also accounts for the majority of negative momentum performance.

DIY Trend-Following Allocations: May 2023

Partial exposure to domestic equities. Full exposure to international equities. No exposure to REITs. No exposure to commodities. Partial exposure to intermediate-term bonds.

What are the Best Times for ETF Investors to Trade?

The expense ratio aside, the cost of transacting in an ETF depends on the size of the bid/ask spread at any point in time during the trading day. The ETF investor should make evidence-based trading decisions since the bid/ask spread can range from 1 basis point (bp) to several hundred bps. What are some intelligent guidelines for ETF investors--avoid the open, avoid the close, and what about everything in-between? This article provides data on the effect of the time of day on the average bid/ask spread for ETFs.

The Drivers of Booms and Busts in the Value Premium

John Campbell, Stefano Giglio, and Christopher Polk, authors of the March 2023 study “What Drives Booms and Busts in Value?,” sought to determine which factors drive value’s booms and busts. They interpreted the returns to the standard value strategy through the lens of Robert Merton’s intertemporal CAPM (ICAPM).

Novel explanations for risk-based option momentum

In this paper, we propose a cross-sectional option momentum strategy that is based on the risk component of delta-hedged option returns. We find strong evidence of risk continuation in option returns.

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Important Disclosures

Performance figures contained herein are hypothetical, unaudited and prepared by Alpha Architect, LLC; hypothetical results are intended for illustrative purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results, which may vary. There is a risk of substantial loss associated with trading stocks, commodities, futures, options and other financial instruments. Full disclosures here.

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