Global Factor Performance: December 2023
Standardized Performance Factor Performance Factor Exposures Factor Premiums Factor Attribution Factor Data Downloads
Untangling Behavioral Finance and the Psychology of Financial Planning
The article discusses the importance of integrating psychology into the field of financial planning and highlights the need to understand and address the psychological aspects of financial decision-making and client relationships.
DIY Trend-Following Allocations: December 2023
Full exposure to domestic equities. Full exposure to international equities. Partial exposure to REITs. No exposure to commodities. No exposure to intermediate-term bonds.
After-Tax Performance of Actively Managed Funds
Ignoring the impact of taxes on the returns of taxable accounts is one of the biggest mistakes that can be made.
Is now a good time to buy bonds?
As pundits wrestle over the cause, implications, and sustainability of the recent massive moves in interest rates, I’ll instead delve into the two terms most often blamed for these shifts in rates: R-star and the Term Structure Premium. Unfortunately, what most want—a measure of them—is unknowable. But we can benefit from understanding the theories and models behind these terms. We can glean guidance on what we need, namely a better understanding of the risks and rewards of buying longer-maturing bonds at current rate levels. I contend that now is a good time to secure future cash flows by buying bonds, although determining the precise amount to invest remains a challenge.
A new twist on momentum strategies: Utilize overlapping momentum portfolios
Momentum investors utilize different timeframes to identify high momentum equities: past 6, 9, 12 months as an example. Obviously, there is a significant degree of overlap in momentum stocks identified across various past time frames. However, there has been little research focused on understanding the characteristics of momentum stocks formed on six and 12 months that overlap one another. The authors refer to the subset as “overlapping” stocks and suggest they constitute the largest proportion of the profitability of the momentum strategy.
Focus on Income Can Undermine Returns: The Case of Covered Calls
Covered calls implemented to deliver higher derivative income should be expected to have (1) lower total returns, (2) higher tax realizations along the path, and (3) a more negatively skewed return profile. Investors who allocate to these strategies for their income alone, without accounting for these other considerations, might have made a devil’s bargain
A New 1042 QRP Team Member Joins Alpha Architect: Erik Chavez
We are pleased to announce that Erik Chavez has joined Alpha Architect and will work alongside Kyle and Doug to support our 1042 QRP ESOP service (qualified replacement property for ESOP rollovers). While new to our team, Erik has been our friend for a long time. Erik is a multiple-time March for the Fallen survivor -- see below when he is part of the MFTF clean-up crew (cirled in blue).
Is ESG Investing Counterproductive?
The article introduces a concept called "impact elasticity," which measures how a firm's environmental impact changes in response to shifts in its cost of capital (the "E" in "ESG"). It finds that the dominant sustainable investing strategy, which favors green firms and punishes brown firms by altering their cost of capital, can be counterproductive.
The Magnificent Seven
When a small subset of companies makes up a large portion of a portfolio, for better or worse their returns will have a greater impact on overall portfolio results.
Is Inflation Ever Going to Go Down?
If inflation surges, how long on average, will it take to subside to a reasonable target rate of 2%?
The Performance of Major Private Equity/LBO Firms
The claims of superior risk-adjusted performance by the PE industry are exaggerated. Given their lack of liquidity, opaqueness, and greater use of leverage, it seems logical that investors should demand something like a 3-4% IRR premium. Yet, there is no evidence that the industry overall has been able to deliver that.
Global Factor Performance: November 2023
Standardized Performance Factor Performance Factor Exposures Factor Premiums Factor Attribution Factor Data Downloads
Organization Capital and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns
This paper focuses on "organization capital," representing intangible assets in a firm's key employees that is not captured by classic value measures such as book-to-market. The authors propose a structural model to analyze the impact of organizational capital on asset prices and argue that shareholders perceive firms with high levels of organizational capital to be riskier than those with more physical capital.
Technology Spillover Impacts Stock Returns
The timelier adoption of new technology and the higher likelihood of large-scale technology adoption make the risk associated with technological innovation more systematic, which in turn increases returns required by investors for technology spillover recipients.
DIY Trend-Following Allocations: November 2023
Full exposure to domestic equities. Partial exposure to international equities. No exposure to REITs. Partial exposure to commodities. No exposure to intermediate-term bonds.
Doug Talks with Belle about 1042 QRP ESOP Solutions
In this episode host Belle Osvath, CFP® talks with Doug Pugliese who is the Head of 1042 QRP Strategies at Alpha Architect. They discuss 1042 exchanges which allow the owner of a closely held C-Corp to sell their equity to an employee stock purchase plan and defer long-term capital gains as long as they rollover the proceeds into a qualified investment. Doug talks about the benefit to a company and the employees when creating an ESOP and does an excellent job at breaking down the strategy behind the decision. Doug also identifies which business owners are ideal candidates for this type of exchange and discusses the limited investment options that business owners have historically faced and how his team is working to change that. If you have business owner clients our are just curious about this innovative approach to 1042 exchanges this is the show for you.
Value versus Values in ESG Investing
The relationship between financial markets and ESG investing is obscured by the lack of clarity regarding motivations for investing in ESG strategies. Is the motive to align the investor’s values with the ESG theme? Or is the ESG term a misnomer for a set of stocks that are systematically undervalued, for some reason as a function of its ESG characteristics?
Dissecting the Idiosyncratic Volatility Puzzle
Idiosyncratic volatility (IVOL) is the volatility of a security that cannot be explained by overall market volatility—it is the risk unique to a particular security. IVOL contrasts with systematic risk, which is the risk that affects all securities in a market (such as changes in interest rates or inflation) and, therefore cannot be diversified away. On the other hand, the risks of high IVOL stocks can at least be reduced through diversification.
Executives vs. Chatbots in Earnings Conference Q&A
In this study, we introduce a novel measure of information content (Human-AI Differences, HAID) by exploiting the discrepancy between answers to questions at earnings calls provided by corporate executives and those given by several context-preserving Large Language Models (LLM) such as ChatGPT, Google Bard, and an open source LLM.