Tactical Asset Allocation: Does the Day of the Month Matter?
Most long-term approaches to investing, like tactical asset allocation or factor investing, are designed to trade infrequently, generally once a month or once a quarter. [...]
Academic Research Insight: The Value of Crowsourced Earnings Forecasts
Title: THE VALUE OF CROWDSOURCED EARNINGS FORECASTS Authors: RUSSELL JAME, RICK JOHNSTON, STANIMIR MARKOV, AND MICHAEL C. WOLFE Publication: JOURNAL OF ACCOUNTING RESEARCH, SEPTEMBER 2016 (version here) What [...]
Factor Investing: Evidence Based Insights
I will be talking on the Factor Investing panel at the upcoming Evidence-Based Investing Conference in Dana Point, CA next Sunday –Tuesday. I am excited [...]
1042 Exchange: Navigating Between a Rock and a Hard Place
This particular Greek dilemma is what came to mind when I first encountered an ESOP. I observed that business owners who sold shares to an ESOP seemed, like Odysseus, to find themselves between a rock and a hard place. They could elect to pursue a 1042 exchange and bypass the Scylla of capital gains taxes, but in doing so they had to roll their sale proceeds into qualified replacement property. That path would likely lead to the Charybdis of Floating Rate Notes. These special ESOP bonds are the predominant 1042 exchange asset in the marketplace, a fact that belies their relative shortcomings as an investment asset. Just how unattractive floating rate notes are, and why they became the default 1042 rollover strategy among financial advisors, is the subject of this article. However, unlike Odysseus, business owners seeking to implement 1042 exchanges have more affordable and transparent paths to navigate between a rock and a hard place.
Academic Research Insight: The Strategic Timing of Earnings News
Title: FURTHER EVIDENCE ON THE STRATEGIC TIMING OF EARNINGS NEWS: JOINT ANALYSIS OF WEEKDAYS AND TIMES OF DAY Authors: RONI MICHAEY, AMIR RUBIN, [...]
Active Share: Does it Predict Fund Performance?
The Holy Grail for mutual fund investors is the ability to identify in advance, which of the active mutual funds (or ETFs nowadays) will outperform [...]
“Passive” Investing: Theory and Practice in a Global Market
Purely passive investing is theoretically plausible but practically impossible. That said, the practical implementations can often be "good enough." As a theoretical index investor, you deploy [...]
The Global Value Momentum Trend Philosophy
Our Global Value Momentum Trend Index ("GVMT" or "GVMT Index") is a globally diversified equity strategy that leverages trend-following to manage tail-risks. The strategy can [...]
The Dividend Disconnect: Behavioral Finance Strikes Again
The first prediction in the paper is that "Capital Gains and Dividends Viewed as Distinct Desirable Attributes". But what does that mean? The authors highlight that when assessing stock positions, an investor has two options for how to assess the performance -- (1) simple price appreciation/depreciation or (2) total return. Note that price appreciation/depreciation is simply the price appreciation/depreciation on the position, while total return includes both the price appreciation/depreciation plus the dividend return. Directly from the paper: For many positions, either price changes or returns including dividends will yield the same category of gain or loss. However, some positions are at a gain when dividends are included, but at a loss without their inclusion. Do investors treat such positions as being at a gain or at a loss when evaluating whether to sell the position? This is equivalent to asking whether investors adjust for the mechanical decrease in shares price that results from dividend payments.
Academic Research Insight: Factor Investing Over the Long Run
Title: FACTOR BASED INVESTING: THE LONG TERM EVIDENCE Authors: ELROY DIMSON, PAUL MARSH, AND MIKE STAUNTON Publication: THE JOURNAL OF PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT, [...]
Trust, but Verify: The Potential Problems of Blind Investing
Nobody can predict the future, but there is a chance the blind purchase of broad-index portfolios will come to an abrupt and potentially chaotic end when the [...]
The Value Premium: Risk or Mispricing?
One of the great debates in finance is whether the source of the value premium is risk-based or a behavioral anomaly. In our book, “Your [...]
Academic Research Insight: The Social Media Factor
Editor's Note: The Academic Research Insight will be a weekly short-form research summary on research that is directly related to investing. Elisabetta Basilico (a PhD [...]
A Direct Test of the Dividend Catering Hypothesis
Why do CEOs decide to pay dividends? That is an interesting question, and one that academics have been researching for years. Miller and Modigiliani in [...]
Chinese Market Anomalies – The Factor Killer?
The Oracle of Omaha just commented on the Chinese stock market in this year's Berkshire's annual meeting: ...Markets have a casino characteristic that has a [...]
Do Trading Costs Destroy Factor Investing?
There are a number of recent studies that propose a more rigorous criteria for evaluating the practical significance of factors published in academic research journals. [...]
(Fight) the Fed Model
Over the past few years, we've been asked questions related to the relationship between stock prices and interest rates. Forms of the question typically look like [...]
Swedroe Spotlight: Enhancing Momentum Strategies Via Idiosyncratic Momentum
Momentum is the tendency for assets that have performed well (poorly) in the recent past to continue to perform well (poorly) in the future, at [...]
The Capacity of Smart Beta Funds — Larger than Previously Thought?
ETFs and factor investing are on the tip of everyone's tongue these days. Factor investing is being couched as a "new" thing, despite the fact that institutional investors have been deploying these strategies for years. (See this working paper discussing the effective use of smart beta strategies by institutional investors.) However, because factor investing is now directly accessible via ETFs, those who are unfamiliar with factor investing are asking questions about how these "new" funds will affect the market. Two burning questions many investors have: What is the overall capacity of smart beta funds? What is the capacity of momentum-based funds, specifically?
Tactical Asset Allocation and the US 60/40 Benchmark
Our firm Allocate Smartly provides independent analysis of Tactical Asset Allocation (TAA) strategies. TAA strategies dynamically allocate to broad asset classes like stock indices, bond indices or gold. Unlike [...]