Value Investing: Headwinds, Tailwinds, and Variables

By |May 20th, 2022|Research Insights, Factor Investing, Value Investing Research, Tactical Asset Allocation Research|

Investing is no different. A question we regularly get in the current environment is "How does inflation affect value stocks?" Well...it depends. I could show you some data on how value stocks did in the 70's (period of high inflation) versus how they did in the 90's (low inflation). But if WW3 broke out tomorrow, wouldn't that variable quickly top all other variables? Probably. So let's table that variable.

Are Stock Market Bubbles Identifiable?

By |March 31st, 2022|Volatility (e.g., VIX), Research Insights, Larry Swedroe, Trend Following, Academic Research Insight, Tactical Asset Allocation Research|

Robin Greenwood, Andrei Shleifer, and Yang You authors of the study “Bubbles for Fama”, published in the January 2019 issue of the Journal of Financial Economics evaluated Fama's claim that stock prices do not exhibit price bubbles. Based on a fixed threshold for the industry price increases (e.g., a 100 percent price run-up during two consecutive years) to filter their events and to analyze what happens afterward, they examined U.S. industry returns over the period 1926‒2014 (covering 40 episodes) and international sector returns (1985‒2014).

Can Investment Flows Affect Prices? Yep.

By |March 25th, 2022|Dividends and Buybacks, Price Pressure Factor, Research Insights, Factor Investing, Academic Research Insight, Behavioral Finance, Tactical Asset Allocation Research|

Traditional finance theory suggests that stocks prices always reflect their fair market values based on publicly available information. Or in academic parlance, the "semi-strong" form efficient markets hypothesis serves as the null. What are the implications of this hypothesis? Well, the hypothesis suggests that the only reason a stock price will move is due to a shift in fundamentals (either through a change in expected cash flows or via the discount rate). But what about supply and demand shifts?

Does diversification always benefit investors? No.

By |February 22nd, 2022|Empirical Methods, Research Insights, Basilico and Johnsen, Academic Research Insight, Tactical Asset Allocation Research|

This article examines the extent to which these assumptions hold and the extent to which investors should want them to hold.  The authors deliver a clever quote from Mark Twain (or maybe it was Robert Frost) that nails the issue in simple terms: “Diversification behaves like the banker who lends you his umbrella when the sun is shining but wants it back the minute it begins to rain”. Nicely expressed!

The Best Strategies for Dealing with Inflation? Factors and Trend-Following

By |January 24th, 2022|Research Insights, Factor Investing, Trend Following, Basilico and Johnsen, Academic Research Insight, Tactical Asset Allocation Research|

Inflation -- what's that? ... It has been quite a while since inflation has been considered a problem. Today, however, the angst surrounding the possibility of a resurgence in inflation is real and “top of mind” for investors.   If the current fear becomes a reality, how should investors react? What strategies and asset classes perform well in a rising inflationary environment? If inflation does resurge beyond a temporary phase, how should investors restructure or reposition their portfolios? The purpose of this article is to provide context for those decisions.

Asset Allocation and Private Market (i.e. illiquid) Investing

By |January 10th, 2022|Private Equity, Liquidity Factor, Research Insights, Factor Investing, Basilico and Johnsen, Academic Research Insight, Tactical Asset Allocation Research|

Allocations to illiquid assets have become increasingly popular requiring asset managers to consider portfolio-wide liquidity characteristics. Although determining the price of illiquidity is a challenge for investors, the construction of a portfolio that includes liquidity constraints can be even more daunting. How do we optimize asset allocation with liquidity as a significant constraint on the portfolio?

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