This time is almost always different, it seems, but the data suggest that things are typically always the same: chaotic and volatile. Stock market investors should be prepared for large short-term moves in stocks and they should be skeptical of narratives suggesting a causal relationship between environmental variables and future volatility.
Robin Greenwood, Andrei Shleifer, and Yang You authors of the study “Bubbles for Fama”, published in the January 2019 issue of the Journal of Financial Economics evaluated Fama's claim that stock prices do not exhibit price bubbles. Based on a fixed threshold for the industry price increases (e.g., a 100 percent price run-up during two consecutive years) to filter their events and to analyze what happens afterward, they examined U.S. industry returns over the period 1926‒2014 (covering 40 episodes) and international sector returns (1985‒2014).
As far back as 1976, with the publication of Fischer Black’s “Studies of Stock Price Volatility Changes” financial economists have known that volatility and returns are negatively correlated. This relationship results in the tendency to [...]
Open Source Cross-Sectional Asset Pricing Andrew Chen and Tom ZimmermannWorking paperA version of this paper can be found here What are the research questions? There has been a wave of articles (and press) suggesting that academic [...]
Betting against correlation: Testing theories of the low-risk effect Cliff Asness, Andrea Frazzini, Niels Joachim Gormsen, Lasse Heje PedersenJournal of Financial EconomicsA version of this paper can be found hereWant to read our summaries of academic [...]
In perfectly efficient markets, option prices should not convey any new information or contribute to the price discovery of underlying assets. However, if markets are not perfectly efficient, traders with private information might prefer to [...]
Mark Kritzman and Yuanzhen LiFinancial Analyst Journal, 2010A version of this paper can be found hereWant to read our summaries of academic finance papers? Check out our Academic Research Insight category What are the Research Questions When hunting [...]
A large body of research, including the 2017 study “Tail Risk Mitigation with Managed Volatility Strategies” by Anna Dreyer and Stefan Hubrich, demonstrates that while past returns do not predict future returns, past volatility largely [...]