Financial literacy and financial crime: A regression discontinuity approach
Financial crime is often treated as a matter of enforcement. People break rules, courts prosecute, and regulators respond. But in reality, financial crime can also [...]
Why Retail Loves SpaceX: A Puzzle with a Long History and Predictable Ending
As I'm writing this, the largest IPO in history is underway. SpaceX, which targeted a $135 IPO price, closed above $160 in its first trading day, making Elon Musk the world's first trillionaire and SpaceX the sixth largest public company in the world. Talk about a rocket ship! While the numbers are astonishing, the story is the same. Retail loves expensive stocks that tell a story.
Why the 351 Exchange Might Revolutionize Investing
The 351 exchange seems to be gaining real traction. A section 351 exchange allows investors to exchange property for shares of a new company. In the case of ETFs, investors are able to exchange their appreciated holdings for shares of a new exchange-traded fund without immediately triggering capital gains, if rules and tests are met. Still, many are wondering what the basis is for using a century-old tax rule and applying it to a modern investment wrapper. More importantly, if 351 exchanges are not tools for achieving portfolio diversification, why are they being used to seed ETFs?
The Long Volatility Premium: Short the Market, Get Paid?
Long volatility should be considered a factor that earns positive returns over the long term. At least that's what One River Asset Management’s Patrick Kazley suggests in his piece "Heretical Thinking: The Long Volatility Premium"
Low-Cost Financing via Short Box Spreads: A Primer for Financial Advisors
It is well-known that box spreads offer investors the ability to lend via the options market at similar rates to Treasury Bills. But there is another, less popular side of the box spread market – borrowing money. This articles dives into the mechanics of how to use box spreads to borrow at low costs.
Buy and “Hold On for Dear Life”? Think Again!
Today, phrases like “HODL” and “buy the dip” have become rallying cries for equity investors. But is this mindset always correct? Could there come a time when buying dips or holding at all costs turns out to be a mistake? To dig deeper, let’s look at insights from Michael Mauboussin and Dan Callahan’s recent paper, Drawdowns & Recoveries: Base Rates for Bottoms and Bounces, and consider what the evidence tells us about the nature of drawdowns and recoveries.
Improving Buffer Strategies: Pay Attention to the Tails!
Buffer ETFs have become one of the fastest-growing product lines in finance. But what risks are buffer investors carrying without realizing it? Let's zoom in on the two areas where they fall short and propose potential solutions that seek to address these issues.
The Problem with Buffer ETFs: Cap the Upside & Expose the Downside
On the surface, buffer ETFs appear attractive: they seek to capture some upside while mitigating a portion of losses. However, this does not mean they are risk-free. In fact, under certain market conditions, these products can significantly underperform.
How Buffer ETFs Promise to Protect You (and Why They Can’t Do It All)
Buffer ETFs have moved from niche idea to mainstream product in just a few years. That’s not just growth—it’s a trend! But what’s behind it? Are buffer ETFs a breakthrough in risk management… or are they more complex and potentially riskier than they appear?
How Many Stocks Should Be In Your Portfolio? A Practical Guide to Portfolio Construction
Diversification is the only free lunch in investing. If you’ve spent even a day exploring the world of finance, you’ve likely encountered this common truism. But chances are, you’ve also heard stories of someone turning a small stake into millions by going all-in on just one or two stocks. That contrast raises a natural question for many investors: how many stocks should I actually own in my portfolio? Too many stocks, and you might be leaving opportunities on the table. Too few and you risk losing your shirt! So how do we strike a balance?
Should Investors Combine or Separate Their Factor Exposures?
If you’re a factor investor, there will come a time where you will have to choose between mom and dad: Should you combine or separate your factor exposures? And make no mistake: You will have to make a decision! While there’s no right answer, the way you structure your portfolio can have significant implications for returns, costs, and even your own behavior as an investor. Let’s walk through the logic behind both approaches.
Can Modern Portfolio Theory Still Teach Us Any Lessons Today?
Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) has long served as a foundational framework for asset allocation and portfolio construction. This concept remains influential in both academic finance and practical investment management. But the question investors face today is not whether MPT was revolutionary—it clearly was—but whether its insights still hold up under real-world conditions, decades later.
Cut Through the Noise! These Two Factors Tend to Drive Portfolio Success
Let’s break down how to build a robust factor portfolio—without getting lost in the weeds. We investigate which equity factors have the strongest historical returns and diversification benefits from a long-only perspective.
Anti-Dividend Investing: Yield Matters—But Not How You Think!
Dividends are the comfort food of investing. Who wouldn’t love feeling like they’re getting a seemingly “free” payout just for holding onto a stock? As with all good things, there's a little more—perhaps a whole lot more—to the story. Here’s why: even in a tax-free setting, selling stocks before dividend payouts can lead to abnormal returns.
What is Trend Following? A Painful Journey to Smarter Investing
Trend following, at its core, is a strategy where investors buy an asset when it's going up and sell when it’s going down. But unlike panic-driven investors who sell at the worst possible moment, trend followers adhere to a rules-based approach in an attempt to remove emotion from the equation.
Is There A Bubble In Private Credit?
While the media headlines are preaching doom, the fundamentals are telling a very different story—credit spreads have widened, and EBITDA multiples are the lowest they have been in a decade. The bottom line is that for investors able to accept its limited liquidity, private, senior, secured and sponsored by private equity direct lending continues to be a compelling component of a diversified portfolio deliver what has always attracted investors: high current income, resilience through market cycles, and a disciplined approach to risk management. We are far from a bubble.
DIY Trend-Following Allocations: February 2025
International equity moving from full hedge to no hedge. Commodities moving from full hedge to partial hedge. Real estate moving from partial hedge to no hedge. Intermediate bonds moving from full hedge to partial hedge.
Nine Lessons the Market Taught in 2024
In 2024 investors were provided with nine lessons. Many of them are repeats from prior years. Unfortunately, too many investors fail to learn them—they keep making the same errors.
Global Factor Performance: January 2025
The following factor performance modules have been updated on our Index website.[ref]free access for financial professionals[/ref] Factor Performance Factor Premiums Factor Data Downloads
DIY Trend-Following Allocations: January 2025
Do-It-Yourself trend-following asset allocation weights for the Robust Asset Allocation Index are posted here. (Note: free registration required) Request a free account here if you [...]