Larry Swedroe

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The Forecasting Power of Value, Profitability, and Investment Spreads

By |February 25th, 2021|Research Insights, Factor Investing, Larry Swedroe, Academic Research Insight, Other Insights, Value Investing Research|

Studies such as the 2019 paper “Value Return Predictability Across Asset Classes and Commonalities in Risk Premia,” have demonstrated that while it is difficult to time investments based on their value spreadsThe difference in the [...]

Do Security Analysts Follow the Academic Evidence?

By |February 4th, 2021|Research Insights, Factor Investing, Larry Swedroe, Academic Research Insight|

As my co-author Andrew Berkin and I explain in our new book “Your Complete Guide to Factor-Based Investing,” there is considerable evidence of cross-sectional return predictability. Citing more than 100 academic papers, we presented evidence [...]

The Quality Factor—What Exactly Is It?

By |January 28th, 2021|Quality Investing, Research Insights, Factor Investing, Larry Swedroe, Value Investing Research|

The existence of a quality premium in stocks that has been persistent over time, pervasive around the globe, and robust to various definitions have been well documented by studies such as “Buffett’s Alpha,” “Global Return [...]

Is the Market Getting more Efficient?

By |January 22nd, 2021|Research Insights, Factor Investing, Larry Swedroe, Academic Research Insight, Active and Passive Investing|

Another Alpha Opportunity Bites the Dust In 1998, Charles Ellis wrote “Winning the Loser’s Game,” in which he presented evidence that while it is possible to generate alpha and win the game of active management, [...]

Value and Momentum and Investment Anomalies

By |January 7th, 2021|Research Insights, Factor Investing, Larry Swedroe, Value Investing Research, Momentum Investing Research|

The predictive abilities of value and momentum strategies are among the strongest and most pervasive empirical findings in the asset pricing literature. (here is a deep dive) For example, the study “Value and Momentum Everywhere” [...]

Is Size a Useful Investing Factor or Not?

By |December 18th, 2020|Research Insights, Factor Investing, Larry Swedroe, Other Insights, Size Investing Research|

In his famous 1981 paper, "The Relationship Between Return and Market Value of Common Stocks,” Rolf Banz found that small firms have higher risk-adjusted returns than large firms. This was one of the first major [...]

Profitability Factor Details: Taxable Income is Tied to Future Profitability and Returns

By |December 3rd, 2020|Quality Investing, Research Insights, Factor Investing, Larry Swedroe, Other Insights|

Robert Novy-Marx’s 2013 paper  “ The Other Side of Value: The Gross Profitability Premium” not only provided investors with new insights into the cross-section of stock returns but also helped further explain some of Warren [...]

Trend Following Research: Breaking Bad Trends

By |November 12th, 2020|Research Insights, Factor Investing, Larry Swedroe, Trend Following, Academic Research Insight, Other Insights, Momentum Investing Research|

Momentum is the tendency for assets that have performed well (poorly) in the recent past to continue to perform well (poorly) in the future, at least for a short period of time. Initial research on [...]

Should Treasury Bills Be The Risk-Free Asset in Asset Pricing Models?

By |November 5th, 2020|Research Insights, Factor Investing, Larry Swedroe, Academic Research Insight, Other Insights, Low Volatility Investing, Macroeconomics Research|

In virtually all studies on asset pricing and asset pricing models, the one-month Treasury bill is the choice as the risk-free rate. In his study “The Risk-Free Asset Implied by the Market: Medium-Term Bonds instead [...]

Combining Value and Profitability Factors to Improve Performance

By |October 29th, 2020|Research Insights, Factor Investing, Larry Swedroe, Academic Research Insight, Value Investing Research|

Prior Research on Value and Profitability Factors The 1997 publication of Mark Carhart’s paper “On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance” led to the four-factor model, which added momentum to market beta, size, and value, becoming [...]

Equity Trend Following Performance Around the Globe

By |October 15th, 2020|Research Insights, Factor Investing, Larry Swedroe, Trend Following, Academic Research Insight, Other Insights|

Time-series momentum (TSMOM) historically has demonstrated abnormal excess returns. Also called trend following, it is measured by a portfolio that is long assets that have had recent positive returns and short assets that have had [...]

Lottery Preferences and Their Relationship with Factor Investing

By |October 1st, 2020|Skewness, Research Insights, Larry Swedroe, Academic Research Insight, Behavioral Finance, Low Volatility Investing|

Among the assumptions in the first formal asset pricing model, the CAPM, is that investors are risk-averse, they maximize the expected utility of absolute wealth, and they care only about the mean and variance of [...]

Accruals and Momentum and Their Implications for Factor Investors

By |September 17th, 2020|Research Insights, Factor Investing, Larry Swedroe, Other Insights, Momentum Investing Research|

The price momentum and accruals (the difference between accounting earnings and cash flows—adjustments made for revenue that has been earned but not received, and costs that have been incurred but not paid) anomalies are two [...]

Even Great Investments Experience Massive Drawdowns

By |August 20th, 2020|Research Insights, Factor Investing, Larry Swedroe, Academic Research Insight, Value Investing Research|

Editor's Note: The ability of value investors to adhere to their investment strategy has been put to the greatest test ever. From January 2017 through March 2020, in terms of total returns, the Russell 3000 [...]

Cross-Asset Signals and Time-Series Momentum

By |August 6th, 2020|Research Insights, Factor Investing, Larry Swedroe, Academic Research Insight, Momentum Investing Research|

In their paper “Time Series Momentum,” published in the May 2012 issue of the Journal of Financial Economics, Tobias Moskowitz, Yao Hua Ooi and Lasse Pedersen documented significant time-series momentum (trend) in equity index, currency, [...]

Is Systematic Value Dead???

By |July 30th, 2020|Research Insights, Factor Investing, Larry Swedroe, Academic Research Insight, Value Investing Research|

Value investing is the age-old investment strategy that buys securities that appear cheap relative to some fundamental anchor. Ronen Israel, Kristoffer Laursen, Scott A. Richardson in "Is (Systematic) Value Investing Dead" There is a large [...]

Fundamental Momentum, the Carry Trade, and Currency Returns

By |July 23rd, 2020|Research Insights, Factor Investing, Larry Swedroe, Academic Research Insight, Momentum Investing Research|

Momentum in prices is the tendency of assets that have performed well recently (such as over the prior year) to outperform assets in the same asset class that have performed poorly over the prior year. [...]

Left Tail Risk and Left Tail Momentum

By |July 14th, 2020|Research Insights, Larry Swedroe, Academic Research Insight, Momentum Investing Research|

The positive trade-off between risk and expected return is the most fundamental concept in financial economics. Most investors are risk-averse. In order to hold higher-risk securities, they demand higher compensation in the form of higher [...]

Combining Momentum with Long-Term Reversal

By |July 3rd, 2020|Research Insights, Factor Investing, Larry Swedroe, Trend Following, Academic Research Insight, Momentum Investing Research|

Two of most documented anomalies in the asset pricing literature are the momentum effect and the long-term reversal effect. Momentum is typically defined as the last 12 months of returns excluding the most recent month [...]

Do Option Prices Inform Stock Returns?

By |June 18th, 2020|Volatility (e.g., VIX), Options, Research Insights, Larry Swedroe|

In perfectly efficient markets, option prices should not convey any new information or contribute to the price discovery of underlying assets. However, if markets are not perfectly efficient, traders with private information might prefer to [...]

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