Adverse Effects of Index Replication
The empirical research we have reviewed shows that the (hidden) costs of index construction and rebalancing policies to investors are about 10 times the expense ratios.
Anti-Dividend Investing: Yield Matters—But Not How You Think!
Dividends are the comfort food of investing. Who wouldn’t love feeling like they’re getting a seemingly “free” payout just for holding onto a stock? As with all good things, there's a little more—perhaps a whole lot more—to the story. Here’s why: even in a tax-free setting, selling stocks before dividend payouts can lead to abnormal returns.
What is Trend Following? A Painful Journey to Smarter Investing
Trend following, at its core, is a strategy where investors buy an asset when it's going up and sell when it’s going down. But unlike panic-driven investors who sell at the worst possible moment, trend followers adhere to a rules-based approach in an attempt to remove emotion from the equation.
Valuations Reflect U.S. Exceptionalism
US exceptionalism provided the same explanation for the outperformance of US stocks in the 1990s. However, that regime changed. From 2000-2007, while the S&P 500 Index returned just 1.9% per annum (underperforming riskless one-month Treasury bills by 1.3% per annum), the MSCI EAFE Index returned 5.6% per annum, and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index returned 15.3% per annum.
Listing Domicile Driving Valuations
The listing domicile explained about 50% of the valuation gap. In other words, US-listed stocks are substantially more expensive than internationally listed stocks for no reason other than the place of listing.
Growth Predictions, Growth Surprises, and Equity Returns
What matters is not the expectation of future growth, but the deviation between projected growth and realized growth, which, by definition is a surprise, and, thus, is not forecastable.
Global Factor Performance: January 2025
The following factor performance modules have been updated on our Index website.[ref]free access for financial professionals[/ref] Factor Performance Factor Premiums Factor Data Downloads
Investigating Simple Formulaic Investing
Simple, easy-to-implement, systematic formula-based investing can still generate market outperformance, providing investors with efficient exposure to well-documented factor premiums.
What the Index Effect’s Disappearance means for Market Efficiency
One critical, yet often overlooked, choice is how stocks are weighted in the objective function during training, with equally weighted (EW) approaches being the norm. This paper investigates how such choices impact cross-sectional return predictability and the performance of trading strategies derived from these predictions, focusing on the interplay between objective function design and model outcomes.
Do sell-side analysts say “buy” while whispering “sell”?
Managers are more likely to vote for analysts who exhibit greater “say-buy/whisper-sell” behavior toward these man agers. This suggests that analysts reduce the accuracy of their public recommendations, thereby maintaining the value of their private advice to funds.
Intangibles and the Performance of the Value Factor
Systematic factor-driven value strategies have underperformed broad market indices (such as the S&P 500) over the past 15+ years. That has led many to question [...]
Frog in the Pan Momentum: International Evidence
Underreaction to continuous news plays a key role in generating momentum internationally.
Global Factor Performance: December 2024
The following factor performance modules have been updated on our Index website.
Calendar Anomalies, Much Ado About Nothing
An anomaly is a pattern in stock returns that deviates from what is expected based on established financial theories or models. These patterns can sometimes [...]
Factors are global, respectable and repeatable
The propagation of factors actually reflect valid characteristics of the markets and market fluctuations.
Improving Low Volatility Strategies
The bottom line is that returns to the low volatility anomaly have only justified investing when low-volatility stocks were in the value regime, after periods of strong market performance, and when they excluded high-volatility stocks that have low short interest (providing clues as to how to improve its performance). This may be why live funds have been generating large negative alphas once we account for common factor exposures.
Rethinking Asset Growth in Asset Pricing Models
Measures of asset growth add considerable explanatory power to asset pricing models, but wait, there’s a twist. The formulation for measuring asset growth in risk [...]
Academic Anomalies Formed After Information Events
The hurdles to adding alpha for active managers are getting higher—investment practitioners make use of it as soon as or shortly after it is available.
Artificial intelligence, firm growth, and product innovation
AI-powered growth concentrates among larger firms and is associated with higher industry concentration. Our results highlight that new technologies like AI can contribute to growth and superstar firms through product innovation.
Global Factor Performance: October 2024
The following factor performance modules have been updated on our Index website.