Trend following, at its core, is a strategy where investors buy an asset when it's going up and sell when it’s going down. But unlike panic-driven investors who sell at the worst possible moment, trend followers adhere to a rules-based approach in an attempt to remove emotion from the equation.
US exceptionalism provided the same explanation for the outperformance of US stocks in the 1990s. However, that regime changed. From 2000-2007, while the S&P 500 Index returned just 1.9% per annum (underperforming riskless one-month Treasury bills by 1.3% per annum), the MSCI EAFE Index returned 5.6% per annum, and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index returned 15.3% per annum.
The listing domicile explained about 50% of the valuation gap. In other words, US-listed stocks are substantially more expensive than internationally listed stocks for no reason other than the place of listing.
What matters is not the expectation of future growth, but the deviation between projected growth and realized growth, which, by definition is a surprise, and, thus, is not forecastable.
The following factor performance modules have been updated on our Index website.[ref]free access for financial professionals[/ref] Factor Performance Factor Premiums Factor Data Downloads
Simple, easy-to-implement, systematic formula-based investing can still generate market outperformance, providing investors with efficient exposure to well-documented factor premiums.
One critical, yet often overlooked, choice is how stocks are weighted in the objective function during training, with equally weighted (EW) approaches being the norm. This paper investigates how such choices impact cross-sectional return predictability and the performance of trading strategies derived from these predictions, focusing on the interplay between objective function design and model outcomes.
Managers are more likely to vote for analysts who exhibit greater “say-buy/whisper-sell” behavior toward these man agers. This suggests that analysts reduce the accuracy of their public recommendations, thereby maintaining the value of their private advice to funds.
Systematic factor-driven value strategies have underperformed broad market indices (such as the S&P 500) over the past 15+ years. That has led many to question [...]
Underreaction to continuous news plays a key role in generating momentum internationally.
The following factor performance modules have been updated on our Index website.
An anomaly is a pattern in stock returns that deviates from what is expected based on established financial theories or models. These patterns can sometimes [...]
The propagation of factors actually reflect valid characteristics of the markets and market fluctuations.
The bottom line is that returns to the low volatility anomaly have only justified investing when low-volatility stocks were in the value regime, after periods of strong market performance, and when they excluded high-volatility stocks that have low short interest (providing clues as to how to improve its performance). This may be why live funds have been generating large negative alphas once we account for common factor exposures.
Measures of asset growth add considerable explanatory power to asset pricing models, but wait, there’s a twist. The formulation for measuring asset growth in risk [...]
The hurdles to adding alpha for active managers are getting higher—investment practitioners make use of it as soon as or shortly after it is available.
AI-powered growth concentrates among larger firms and is associated with higher industry concentration. Our results highlight that new technologies like AI can contribute to growth and superstar firms through product innovation.
The following factor performance modules have been updated on our Index website.
Trailing twelve-month P/E ratios account for 91% of the variation in analysts’ price targets. We construct a new kind of asset-pricing model around this fact and show that it explains the market response to earnings surprises.
While the skewness metric did demonstrate that it could select funds with managers skilled a security selection, the fund’s expenses and implementation meant that the fund was just about able to cover its expenses, and that was before the negative impact of active management on after-tax returns—and the finding was not statistically significant at even the 10% level of confidence.
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