Value and Momentum Investing in Frontier Stock Markets
Value and Momentum investing have been studied across many different markets and asset classes (Asness et al 2013) and have shown to be effective factors. [...]
Swedroe Spotlight: Does Market Sentiment Help Explain Momentum?
David Smith, Na Wang, Ying Wang and Edward Zychowicz contribute to the literature on momentum with their paper, “Sentiment and the Effectiveness of Technical Analysis: Evidence from the Hedge Fund Industry,” which was published in the December 2016 issue of the Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis. Their work examines how investor sentiment affects the effectiveness of technical analysis strategies (which include the use of moving averages as well as momentum) used by hedge funds (which are considered sophisticated investors). The study was motivated by prior research that has focused on “investor sentiment,” which is the propensity of individuals to trade on noise and emotions rather than facts. Sentiment causes investors to have beliefs about future cash flows and investment risks that aren’t justified. Two researchers, Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler, constructed an investor sentiment index based on six measures: trading volume as measured by NYSE turnover; the dividend premium (the difference between the average market-to-book ratio of dividend-payers and non-payers); the closed-end fund discount; the number and first-day returns of IPOs; and the equity share in new issues. Data is available at through Wurgler and New York University.
Visual Active Share: A Tool to Help Investors Make Better Decisions
We've talked extensively about the concepts of active share and active fee, which aren't flawless metrics, but they have elevated the discussion around identifying and [...]
Looking to Improve your Factor Investing? Examine the Trend of Profits
A few years ago, the profitability "quality" factor was originally proposed by Robert Novy-Marx. Here is a snippet from the abstract of the paper: Profitability, [...]
Dual Momentum with Stock Selection
Jack did a nice recap on a momentum paper last week that looks at using fundamentals (revenue volatility, low cost of goods, and B/M) to help identify the best price momentum stocks. This paper sounds similar to the paper Jack reviewed, but there is a key difference: the researchers are looking at the momentum of the fundamentals, not the absolute value of the fundamentals. The authors compile a fundamental momentum variable by calculating the moving averages of 7 elements: return on equity return on assets earnings per share accrual-based operating profitability cash-based operating profitability gross profitability net payout ratio
Firm-Specific Information and Momentum Investing
When it comes to momentum investing, everyone is always looking for a better way to implement a momentum-based stock selection strategy (the same goes for a [...]
Will ETFs Destroy Factor Investing? Nope.
One of the popular investing truisms is the following (inspired by Bill Sharpe): For somebody to beat the market (win) someone else has to lag [...]
How to Explain Momentum with Rational Investors — It’s complicated.
A recent theory paper from researchers at NYU and Rutgers attempts to explain the empirical evidence on stock serial correlation (e.g., short-term reversal, long-term stock reversal, and classic [...]
Factor Investing is More Art, and Less Science
Albert Einstein is reported to have said the following: The more I learn, the more I realize how much I don’t know. We can relate. [...]
The Rebalance Bonus for Value and Momentum Porfolios
A sophisticated DFA-focused advisor asked us to conduct some research on the following question: Are there additional portfolio diversification benefits to combining concentrated portfolios of value and [...]
How to Measure Momentum?
Since we've released our new book, Quantitative Momentum, we've received a handful of basic questions related to momentum--specifically as it relates to stock selection. To [...]
Value Investing Got Crushed During the Internet Bubble — Here’s Why…
The dot-com bubble of the late 90s was a wild time in the stock market. Internet stocks were trading through the roof, tech IPOs were [...]
Quantitative Momentum: A Guide to Momentum-Based Stock Selection
The long wait is over. Our newest book--Quantitative Momentum--is finally here. After 2 years of research review, results replication, reverse engineering, internal idea generation, writing, editing, [...]
Is momentum investing dead? Or is it just painful?
Sometimes even the best evidence-based active investment strategies can create a formidable challenge to investors seeking to exploit them. Case in point -- momentum investing. [...]
When Academics Disagree on Momentum Investing
The academic standard for intermediate-term momentum measurement is "12_2 momentum:" simply sort all stocks based on a stock's total return over the past twelve months, ignoring [...]
Time Series Momentum and Volatility Scaling
There is a new paper published in the Journal of Financial Markets that digs a bit deeper into the Moskowitz, Ooi, and Pedersen "Time Series [...]
Surprise! The Size, Value, and Momentum Anomalies Survive After Trading Costs
Anyone who has spent time reading this blog has become familiar with research involving asset pricing anomalies that generate excess returns. In particular, the academic [...]
Taming the Momentum Investing Roller Coaster: Fact or Fiction?
Intermediate-Term Price momentum, originally researched by Jegadeesh and Titman in 1993, documented a how recent stock returns tended to continue in the future. Stocks that [...]
Can Investors Replicate the Dorsey Wright Focus 5 ETF Strategy?
A long-time reader asked that we examine the performance and process associated with the Dorsey Wright Focus Five ETF (ticker: FV). For those who are unfamiliar [...]
Evidence-Based Investing Requires Less Religion and More Reason
Technical Analysis: The Market’s Oldest Religion During the 1600s, the Dutch had a large merchant fleet and the port city of Amsterdam was a dominant [...]