All firms can benefit from the positive influence of women
Marisa Mayer’s recent announcement that she is again pregnant, and does not plan to take maternity leave after her twins arrive, has once again raised [...]
New Evidence: Simple Forecasts Beat Complex Forecasts
Always seek to simplify. Occam’s razor teaches us we should cut away any extraneous factors that are unnecessary to explain something. Stated another way, we [...]
How Market Volatility Affects Our Brains
The current market volatility is justifiably causing people stress. Nobody wants to see their hard-earned wealth get vaporized. But how does increased stress affect decision-making? A [...]
The Sustainable Active Investing Framework: Simple, But Not Easy
We cannot overemphasize that identifying sustainable alpha in the market is no cakewalk. More importantly, being smart, having superior stock-picking skills, or amassing an army of PhDs to crunch data is only half of the equation. Even with those tools, you are still only one shark in a tank filled with other sharks. All sharks are smart, all sharks have a MBA or PhD from a fancy school, and all the sharks know how to analyze a company. Maintaining an edge in these shark infested waters is no small feat, and one that only a handful of investors has accomplished. In order to achieve sustainable success as an active investor, one needs not only skill, but also an understanding of human psychology, and an appreciation of market incentives (behavioral finance). We start our journey where mine began: as an aspiring PhD student studying at the University of Chicago. Let the adventure begin... This post is not meant to convert a passive investor into an active investor; however, we do explain why we believe active investing can sustainably beat passive strategies in the long run. Plus, we bring to bear many years of cumulative research and experience to support our arguments. We cannot overemphasize that alpha in the market is no cakewalk. More importantly, being smart, having superior stockpicking skills, or amassing an army of PhDs to crunch data is only half of the equation. Even with those tools, you are still only one shark in a tank filled with other sharks. All sharks are smart, all sharks have a MBA or PhD from a fancy school, and all the sharks know how to analyze a company. Maintaining an edge in these shark infested waters is no small feat, and one that only a handful (e.g., we can count them in one hand) of investors has successfully accomplished. In order too achieve sustainable success as an active investing, one needs both skill and an understanding of human psychology and market incentives (behavioral finance). We start our journey where mine began: as an aspiring PhD student studying under Eugene Fama at the University of Chicago. Let the adventure begin...
Algorithm Aversion — Why people don’t follow the model!
There are many studies showing that models beat experts, including the meta-study "Clinical versus mechanical prediction: A meta-analysis" by Grove et al. (2000). However, given [...]
P/E “Attention” Strategies Earn Monthly Excess Return of 1%!
Rankings of Published Pricing-earnings Ratios and Investor Attention Jordan Moore A version of the paper can be found here. Want a summary of academic papers with [...]
How to Make Money in Markets: Understanding Expectation Errors
A new working paper from Gennaili, Ma, and the one-the-only Andrei Shleifer. Expectations and Investment Using micro data from Duke University quarterly survey of Chief [...]
One Secret to More Creative Thinking? The Effect of Walking
Researchers at Stanford recently conducted a study that found that the physical act of walking improved creative thinking in subjects. We believe creative thinking is an [...]
The “hot hand” in basketball. New evidence!
For years, the "hot hand" in basketball has been declared a "fallacy." To be clear, the "hot hand" argument is that basketball players have streaks, where [...]
Behavioral Finance: Part Behavior, Part Market Frictions
The baseline theory for understanding asset prices is the Efficient Market Hypothesis (the “EMH”), pioneered by Eugene Fama. Of particular interest is semi-strong market efficiency, which [...]
For an Auditor, Intuition Might Matter!
Thinking Fast versus Thinking Slow: The Effect on Auditor Skepticism Wolfe, Christensen and Vandervelde A version of the paper can be found here. Want a summary [...]
Humble Pie Prevents 99.8% Drawdowns
It’s not every day you hear news of a 99.8% drawdown, but it looks like today is one of those days. Owen Li of Canarsie [...]
Frequent Trading + Optimistic Analyst Recommendations = Significant Misvaluations!
Stock Duration, Analysts Recommendations, and Misvaluation Cremers, Pareek and Sautner A version of the paper can be found here. A blog on an older version of [...]
Hard to Fire Yourself; Easy to Fire Your Manager
Looking for Someone to Blame: Delegation, Cognitive Dissonance, and the Disposition Effect Chang, Solomon, Westerfield A version of the paper can be found here. Want a [...]
Stop Paying Attention to Your Brokerage Statements
The Worst, the Best, Ignoring All the Rest: The Rank Effect and Trading Behavior Hartzmark A version of the paper can be found here. Want a [...]
Avoid the Experts: A Lesson in CFO Overconfidence
Managerial Miscalibration Ben-David, Graham and Harvey A version of the paper can be found here. Want a summary of academic papers with alpha? Check out our Academic [...]
Thanksgiving Day NFL Gamblers–Take Notes!
Efficiency and the Disposition Effect in NFL Prediction Markets Hartzmark and Solomon A version of the paper can be found here. Want a summary of academic [...]
Avoid CEOs that Golf like Tiger Woods
FORE! An analysis of CEO shirking Biggerstaff, Cicero and Puckett A version of the paper can be found here. Want a summary of academic papers with [...]
Afraid of Market Risk? Stop. Be Afraid of Bias.
Stock markets have been sucking wind recently. S&P R2K When I listen to the nightly news or indulge in 30 seconds of CNBC during the day, [...]
Behavioral Bias Bingo — The Whimsical Cuteness Effect
"So Cute I Could Eat it Up": Priming Effects of Cute Products on Indulgent Consumption Nenkov and Scott A version of the paper can be [...]