Basilico and Johnsen

Submergence: A Tool to Assess Drawdowns and Recoveries

According to research by the authors, stocks and bonds have been submerged for about 75% of the time since 1980; and treasuries have been submerged 80% of the time. Submergences are therefore both commonplace and significant, which means that handling them is very important for investors and their investing strategies.

Reducing the Impact of Momentum Crashes

Momentum crashes are a blight on the performance of momentum strategies. Although there has been a fair amount of research on the topic, few practical solutions have emerged to mitigate the impact on portfolios. In this study, the authors document the outperformance of stocks, in terms of momentum, far away from their peak position relative to stocks very near their peaks. Turns out the outperformance is very large. It also accounts for the majority of negative momentum performance.

What are the Best Times for ETF Investors to Trade?

The expense ratio aside, the cost of transacting in an ETF depends on the size of the bid/ask spread at any point in time during the trading day. The ETF investor should make evidence-based trading decisions since the bid/ask spread can range from 1 basis point (bp) to several hundred bps. What are some intelligent guidelines for ETF investors--avoid the open, avoid the close, and what about everything in-between? This article provides data on the effect of the time of day on the average bid/ask spread for ETFs.

How factor exposure changes over time: a study of Information Decay

Factor strategies need to be rebalanced in order to maintain their factor exposure. But different factors decay at different rates and this affects how they should be rebalanced. For example, momentum needs to be rebalanced more than value. This study digs into these questions.

Comparing past and present inflation rates can be tricky

The objective of this article is to build better estimates of CPI headline and core inflation values so inflation comparisons over time are more reliable.  The run-up in inflation we are currently experiencing is difficult to contextualize because it is inconsistent with past practices, weights on expenditures have changed, and the treatment of housing costs.

Does International Diversification Work?

In this article, the authors examine the research on the benefits of international diversification. Some argue that because equity markets generally crash simultaneously, there are no benefits to having equity diversification. The evidence from this paper rejects this hypothesis.

How Pervasive is Corporate Fraud?

In this article, we examine the research on the pervasiveness of corporate fraud (misconduct or alleged fraud), which is one of the (less emphasized) costs of public ownership.

Political Beta

This example of research on political beta is an example of applying portfolio theory to problems associated with global politics.

Expected Returns for Private Equity Will Probably Suck

The illiquid nature of the asset class makes the demystifying of private equity returns difficult to achieve under any circumstances, but the framework presented in this article should move the reader closer to the goal.

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