Guest Posts

Warning: Stock and Bond Correlation Assumptions are Regime Dependent!

By |2018-08-07T10:40:08+00:00August 7th, 2018|Guest Posts|

It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so. -- attributed to Mark Twain. Mark Twain had some great insights. The quote above [...]

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What to do with Underperforming Investments? Assessment via Bayesian Inference

By |2018-05-22T10:24:08+00:00May 22nd, 2018|Guest Posts|

Assume you made a decision to invest in an active strategy based on, say, a backtest of the underlying process (to be clear, active means NOT passive market-cap weight in my context). Over the next few [...]

Value Investing Portfolios are Not Dead, But Some Have Done Better than Others

By |2018-05-07T18:10:10+00:00May 3rd, 2018|Factor Investing, Guest Posts, Value Investing Research|

Mirror, mirror, on the wall – which is the fairest of them all? Recent commentary (to include a recent Barron's article) seems to suggest that value is dead and may never come back. Of course, most [...]

Quantifying the Value of Retirement Accounts

By |2018-04-17T10:40:34+00:00April 19th, 2018|Guest Posts, Tactical Asset Allocation Research, Tax Efficient Investing|

Many people talk about the tax benefits of retirement accounts. However, few attempt to quantify and estimate the actual benefits. To make matters worse, when the topic is addressed, many of the discussions rely on [...]

Tail Risk Hedging: An Alternative Approach to Risk Management

By |2018-04-04T17:56:59+00:00April 5th, 2018|Guest Posts|

This article proposes tail risk hedging (TRH) as an alternative model for managing risk in investment portfolios. The standard risk management approach involves a significant allocation to hiqh-quality bonds. However, this approach has historically reduced [...]

Who’s Afraid of a Big Bad Bear? Many Investors Shouldn’t be that Concerned

By |2018-03-06T14:02:48+00:00March 2nd, 2018|Guest Posts|

Watching stock prices drop quickly can be terrifying. In late January, every big decline in stock prices was greeted with lots of media coverage, cable news networks rolling out their "market in turmoil" graphics, and [...]

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Are Factors Better and More Diversifying Than Asset Classes?

By |2018-02-23T11:06:14+00:00February 23rd, 2018|Factor Investing, Trend Following, Guest Posts, Low Volatility Investing|

Executive Summary Factor investing promises outperformance at low cost. But to add value in a portfolio, it must deliver positive risk-adjusted returns and with low correlation to existing holdings. Historically, pure factor exposures have earned [...]

A Quantitative Strategy for Enhancing Merger Arbitrage

By |2018-01-25T21:31:25+00:00January 25th, 2018|Research Insights, Guest Posts|

Merger arbitrage, sometimes known as "risk arbitrage," is an investing strategy in which the investor bets on announced M&A deals. After a merger is announced, shares of the target tend to trade below the offered [...]

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Value and Momentum Factor Portfolio Construction: Combine, Intersect, or Sequence?

By |2018-01-19T17:34:43+00:00January 19th, 2018|Factor Investing, Guest Posts, Value Investing Research, Momentum Investing Research|

 Wes asked that I contribute to the ongoing debates regarding the construction of value and momentum portfolios. There are three key research pieces on the topic, all with different viewpoints: Alpha Architect's take AQR's take [...]

The Value Effect and Macroeconomic Risk

By |2018-01-09T09:26:25+00:00January 9th, 2018|Larry Swedroe, Research Insights, Guest Posts, Value Investing Research|

It has been well-documented that value stocks have provided higher expected returns than growth stocks. However, there is a great debate about the source of that premium: Is it risk-based or is it related to [...]

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Myth Busting: Stocks Correlations and Active Investment Opportunities

By |2017-11-29T08:55:30+00:00November 29th, 2017|Guest Posts|

Many investors, investment professionals, and pundits make comments regarding the relationship between stock correlations and opportunities for active stock pickers. For example, here is a recent example from the Financial Times: Correlation crash clears way [...]

Can asset bubbles be mathematically quantified before they burst?

By |2017-11-13T13:08:42+00:00November 14th, 2017|Research Insights, Guest Posts, Low Volatility Investing, Macroeconomics Research|

The subject of asset bubbles and market crashes has fascinated me for more than 20 years. As an options market maker for Susquehanna International Group ("SIG"), extreme price movements were a daily source of concern. I [...]

A Potential Winner: Buying Lottery Stocks with Low Short Interest

By |2017-10-19T09:12:40+00:00October 20th, 2017|Academic Research Insight, Research Insights, Guest Posts|

Short Interest and Lottery Stocks Kelley Bergsma & Jitendra Tayal A version of this paper can be found here Want to read our short summaries of academic finance papers? Check out our Academic Research Insight category. What are [...]

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Dividend Capture Strategy: Trade Execution Matters

By |2017-10-09T20:38:51+00:00October 12th, 2017|$dtd, Research Insights, Guest Posts|

One area in investing that is often overlooked by investors is trade execution, which relates primarily to commissions, bid-ask spreads, and price impact. Yet sometimes it is trade-execution alone that can make the difference between [...]

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Assessing the Potential Market Impact of Passive, Short-volatility, and Low-volatility Strategies

By |2017-09-29T11:59:50+00:00September 29th, 2017|Research Insights, Guest Posts, Active and Passive Investing, ETF Investing|

The market has recently experienced record low levels of realized volatility and the VIX™ (volatility index) has fallen to historic lows. Moreover, the incredibly popular FAAMG stocks[ref]FAAMG is an abbreviation referring to the stocks of [...]

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VIX and Trend-Following, the Killer Combo?

By |2017-09-30T18:18:23+00:00September 28th, 2017|Guest Posts|

Some things in life are naturally made for each other. Some examples include the following: Peanut Butter and Jelly Starsky & Hutch Value and Momentum So my ears perked up when the idea of combining [...]

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Machine Learning for Investors: A Primer

By |2017-10-05T11:14:33+00:00September 27th, 2017|Machine Learning, Research Insights, Guest Posts|

If you are out to describe the truth, leave elegance to the tailor. — Albert Einstein Machine learning is everywhere now, from self-driving cars to Siri and Google Translate, to news recommendation systems and, of [...]

Factor Timing Investigation: Interest Rates, Value Spreads, and Factor Premiums

By |2017-09-22T09:34:38+00:00September 22nd, 2017|Factor Investing, Larry Swedroe, Research Insights, Guest Posts|

Now that the Federal Reserve has begun the process of raising interest rates, and has announced their intention to begin to unwind their policy of quantitative easing (reducing the amount of bonds in their portfolio, [...]

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