I recently experienced one of those fortunate confluence of events that helped me better grasp the relationship between forecasting (which I feel is futile) and my contrarian biases (which are strong). I better realize now [...]
In the great book and series Game of Thrones, the inhabitants of the Iron Islands have a saying "What is Dead May Never Die" which is to be replied with "But rises again harder and [...]
Employee equity & stock options are a major part of the modern compensation plan. That's certainly the case for my financial planning clients. Unfortunately, a search for the best approach to managing your equity opens [...]
The underperformance of value stocks over the past 10 years has received much attention from the financial media and led at least some investors to conclude that value investing is dead. From 2009 through March [...]
The tax benefits of the new Opportunity Zone program are potentially phenomenal. However, when you dig into the details of the program you quickly realize that many of the investment options are typically higher-risk and [...]
Executive Summary • Tax loss harvesting is widely promoted, but we think the benefits are generally misunderstood and often overstated.[ref]a recent paper highlighted by Wes on twitter comes to a similar conclusion. Here is a [...]
Financial planning and specifically portfolio "safe" withdrawal rates are often viewed and analyzed from the perspective of rigid rules that can't be broken - i.e., you will take an inflation adjusted 4% of starting portfolio [...]
We have all heard the mantra, “You can’t time the market!” But in reality, investors attempt to do just that every day as part of their tactical asset allocation strategies, which are less extreme variants [...]
Size and Value in China Jianan Liu, Rob Stambaugh, and Yu YuanJournal of Financial EconomicsA version of this paper can be found here What are the research questions? China represents the world's second largest stock market [...]
A good friend, Sherman Doll, related the following story. Sherman has been a two-line sport kite flier for years. While not a pro, he has learned a few tricks from observing the flying behavior of [...]
Warren Buffett sold long-dated, deep out of the money puts in the years leading up to the financial crisis. In his 2008 Annual Letter to Shareholders, he explained: I believe each contract we own was [...]
Trend following is well-known and the simplest version is as follows: you buy an asset when it has positive momentum (the price goes up) and you sell it and go to cash (or any other [...]
The Misguided Beliefs of Financial Advisers Juhani T. Linnainmaa, Brian Melzer and Alessandro Previtero Kelley School of Business Research Paper No. 18-9 A version of this paper can be found here Want to read our summaries [...]
If you have a large "low-basis stock problem," or an "embedded capital gain problem," the Opportunity Zone (OZ) program could possibly be the single largest tax break you’ll ever see. With the right investment, the [...]
Factors, or "style" investing, seems to be all the rage these days, including the use of factors in fixed income (here, here and here are good places to start). However, many of these strategies focus on [...]
What do most people consider to be the biggest benefit of retirement accounts? Many investors and advisors will say, "tax deferral." But a recent article (pdf version) I wrote highlighted that the real value of retirement [...]
It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so. -- attributed to Mark Twain. Mark Twain had some great insights. The quote above [...]
Assume you made a decision to invest in an active strategy based on, say, a backtest of the underlying process (to be clear, active means NOT passive market-cap weight in my context). Over the next few [...]
Mirror, mirror, on the wall – which is the fairest of them all? Recent commentary (to include a recent Barron's article) seems to suggest that value is dead and may never come back. Of course, most [...]
Many people talk about the tax benefits of retirement accounts. However, few attempt to quantify and estimate the actual benefits. To make matters worse, when the topic is addressed, many of the discussions rely on [...]
