Guest Posts

Is now a good time to buy bonds?

As pundits wrestle over the cause, implications, and sustainability of the recent massive moves in interest rates, I’ll instead delve into the two terms most often blamed for these shifts in rates: R-star and the Term Structure Premium. Unfortunately, what most want—a measure of them—is unknowable. But we can benefit from understanding the theories and models behind these terms. We can glean guidance on what we need, namely a better understanding of the risks and rewards of buying longer-maturing bonds at current rate levels. I contend that now is a good time to secure future cash flows by buying bonds, although determining the precise amount to invest remains a challenge.

Technology Spillover Impacts Stock Returns

The timelier adoption of new technology and the higher likelihood of large-scale technology adoption make the risk associated with technological innovation more systematic, which in turn increases returns required by investors for technology spillover recipients.

Trend-Following Filters – Part 7

This article examines four digital filters commonly used for trend-following: moving average linear weighted moving average exponential smoothing time series momentum

How to Crush the CFPⓇ Exam 💪: Part 2

As discussed in Part 1 of this blog series, the Certified Financial Planner (CFPⓇ) exam can be a stressful and intimidating experience. With eight areas of content to cover – both as siloed financial knowledge and also as an integrated approach to building a comprehensive financial plan – it's important to be organized and intentional in your study efforts.

The Research and Development Factor

The higher returns to high R&D stocks represent compensation for heightened systematic risk not captured in standard asset pricing models.

How to Crush the CFPⓇ Exam 💪: Part 1

Let’s talk about the right approach(es) and the proper study techniques you need to pass the CFPⓇ exam with confidence and get the certification you need to advance your career in finance and investing.

Conditioning anomalies using retail attention metrics

By using a novel measure of investor attention, generated from InvestingChannel’s clickstream data on online financial news consumption, we can identify broad groups of stocks which are less efficiently priced and therefore where anomalies such as Value and Momentum are likely to produce greater cross sectional differentiation in returns.  We also apply these groupings to proprietary ExtractAlpha stock selection signals.

Intangible Value: Modernizing the Factor Portfolio

The “Intangible Value Factor” (IHML) can play an additive role in factor portfolios alongside the established market, size, value, quality, and momentum factors. This Six-Factor Model avoids the problematic “anti-innovation” bias of traditional factor portfolios and can be easily implemented using ETFs.

Improving Performance by Avoiding Negatives of Index Replication

There are several significant, well-documented benefits of index funds. In addition to outperforming a large majority of actively managed funds, they tend to have low fees, low turnover (resulting in low trading costs and high tax efficiency), broad diversification, high liquidity, and near-zero tracking error (generally assumed to mean that they incur negligible trading costs).

Gold as a Safe-Haven Asset

I’ve received calls from clients inquiring about moving assets to gold. When I asked them why, three reasons dominated.

Novel explanations for risk-based option momentum

In this paper, we propose a cross-sectional option momentum strategy that is based on the risk component of delta-hedged option returns. We find strong evidence of risk continuation in option returns.

Trend-Following Filters – Part 6

This article analyzes six trend-following indicators from a digital signal processing (DSP) frequency domain perspective in which the indicators are considered as digital filters and their frequency response characteristics are determined.

Options Hedging & Leveraged ETFs in Market Swings

Earlier this year, GameStop stock rose like crazy in only a few hours with the effects of broker-dealer options hedging spurred by retail investor buying pressure. And from February to March 2020, options trading activity was also pointed to as a contributor to stock swings in the Covid-19 selloff. The market dropped 30% and then recovered quickly over the following weeks. It has been documented that the need for market makers to hedge their positions with options (given rapid changes in stock prices) can contribute to market and stock price swings. However, might there be other factors also at play in these types of stock and market fluctuations? 

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