We have all heard the mantra, “You can’t time the market!” But in reality, investors attempt to do just that every day as part of their tactical asset allocation strategies, which are less extreme variants [...]
Size and Value in China Jianan Liu, Rob Stambaugh, and Yu Yuan Journal of Financial Economics A version of this paper can be found here What are the research questions? China represents the world's second largest [...]
A good friend, Sherman Doll, related the following story. Sherman has been a two-line sport kite flier for years. While not a pro, he has learned a few tricks from observing the flying behavior of [...]
Warren Buffett sold long-dated, deep out of the money puts in the years leading up to the financial crisis. In his 2008 Annual Letter to Shareholders, he explained: I believe each contract we own was [...]
Trend following is well-known and the simplest version is as follows: you buy an asset when it has positive momentum (the price goes up) and you sell it and go to cash (or any other [...]
The Misguided Beliefs of Financial Advisers Juhani T. Linnainmaa, Brian Melzer and Alessandro Previtero Kelley School of Business Research Paper No. 18-9 A version of this paper can be found here Want to read our summaries [...]
If you have a large "low-basis stock problem," or an "embedded capital gain problem," the Opportunity Zone (OZ) program could possibly be the single largest tax break you’ll ever see. With the right investment, the [...]
Factors, or "style" investing, seems to be all the rage these days, including the use of factors in fixed income (here, here and here are good places to start). However, many of these strategies focus on [...]
What do most people consider to be the biggest benefit of retirement accounts? Many investors and advisors will say, "tax deferral." But a recent article (pdf version) I wrote highlighted that the real value of retirement [...]
It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so. -- attributed to Mark Twain. Mark Twain had some great insights. The quote above [...]
Assume you made a decision to invest in an active strategy based on, say, a backtest of the underlying process (to be clear, active means NOT passive market-cap weight in my context). Over the next few [...]
Mirror, mirror, on the wall – which is the fairest of them all? Recent commentary (to include a recent Barron's article) seems to suggest that value is dead and may never come back. Of course, most [...]
Many people talk about the tax benefits of retirement accounts. However, few attempt to quantify and estimate the actual benefits. To make matters worse, when the topic is addressed, many of the discussions rely on [...]
This article proposes tail risk hedging (TRH) as an alternative model for managing risk in investment portfolios. The standard risk management approach involves a significant allocation to hiqh-quality bonds. However, this approach has historically reduced [...]
Watching stock prices drop quickly can be terrifying. In late January, every big decline in stock prices was greeted with lots of media coverage, cable news networks rolling out their "market in turmoil" graphics, and [...]
Executive Summary Factor investing promises outperformance at low cost. But to add value in a portfolio, it must deliver positive risk-adjusted returns and with low correlation to existing holdings. Historically, pure factor exposures have earned [...]
Smart beta (or factor investing) seems to be the product du jour in ETFs. There are so many different factor products available that just about every fund company seems to offer them...even Vanguard is launching [...]
Merger arbitrage, sometimes known as "risk arbitrage," is an investing strategy in which the investor bets on announced M&A deals. After a merger is announced, shares of the target tend to trade below the offered [...]
Wes asked that I contribute to the ongoing debates regarding the construction of value and momentum portfolios. There are three key research pieces on the topic, all with different viewpoints: Alpha Architect's take AQR's take [...]
It has been well-documented that value stocks have provided higher expected returns than growth stocks. However, there is a great debate about the source of that premium: Is it risk-based or is it related to [...]
