Do Treasuries Have a Place in a Modern Portfolio?
Do treasuries, most yielding well south of 1%, have a place in a modern portfolio? Currently at these levels, I conclude they don’t. Modern Portfolio [...]
Do Interest Rates Explain Value’s Underperformance?
From January 2017 through March 2020, the value premium, defined by HML (the return of high book-to-market stocks minus the return of low book-to-market stocks [...]
Free Tool Announcement: Visualizing Unemployment Claims
Our friend Jonathan Regenstein, over at http://www.reproduciblefinance.com/, convinced me that using R would be a great way to build web applications that would help us [...]
Estimating Pandemic Economic Costs for “Face-to-Face” Businesses
Business disruptions from social distancing Miklós Koren and Rita PetoCovid Economics, Center for Economic Policy ResearchA version of this paper can be found hereWant to read [...]
The Economic Consequences of Pandemics: A Guide from History
Pandemics: Long-Run Effects Òscar Jordà, Sanjay R. Singh, Alan M. TaylorCEPR PressA version of this paper can be found here Want to read our summaries of academic finance [...]
Corporate Governance, ESG, and Stock Returns around the World
Corporate Governance, ESG, and Stock Returns around the World Mozzafar KahnFinancial Analysts JournalA version of this paper can be found hereWant to read our summaries of [...]
Macroeconomic Risks in Equity Factor Investing: Part 2/2
Macroeconomic Risks in Equity Factor Investing Noël Amenc, Mikheil Esakia, Felix Goltz, And Ben LuytenJournal of Portfolio ManagementA version of this paper can be found hereWant [...]
Macroeconomic Risks in Equity Factor Investing: Part 1
Macroeconomic Risks in Equity Factor Investing Noël Amenc, Mikheil Esakia, Felix Goltz, And Ben LuytenJournal of Portfolio ManagementA version of this paper can be found hereWant [...]
Global Impact of Investor Home Country Bias
A large body of research demonstrates that “familiarity breeds investment.” For example, a study by Gur Huberman found that shortly after AT&T was broken up [...]
Myth-busting: Fed Actions and Stock Prices
Does the Fed Impact Stock Prices? McDonald, Puleo and Shadmani Journal of Investing, February 2019A version of this paper can be found hereWant to read our summaries [...]
The Perils (and Inevitability) of Forecasting
I recently experienced one of those fortunate confluence of events that helped me better grasp the relationship between forecasting (which I feel is futile) and [...]
Sector Business Cycle Analysis
There are different investment approaches to identify sector winners and losers, such as price momentum strategies, top down approach based on specific macroeconomic indicators or [...]
What the CFOs Think About the Equity Premium in 2018
Professors John Graham and Campbell Harvey consistently put out great research. One of their innovations in financial research is their annual CFO survey (we've covered [...]
Is The US Stock Market Overvalued? Depends on which Model You ask
When stock prices reach a new high, investors start asking the question: Are stocks overvalued? To answer this question, investors have developed several alternative equity [...]
Treasury Bills Outperform Most Stocks — Say What???
Each morning we peruse a variety of research sites to see if there is anything exciting, new, and intriguing. Rarely does one find something that [...]
Interest Rates and Value Investing
There is still no value in bonds today. The typical knee-jerk reaction to bold bond statements (such as the one above) is as follows: This guy is [...]
Earth to Passive Investors: Lunch is Never Free.
Imagine the following scenario: A strategy that outperforms everything. An ability to scale the strategy at no costs. A beating drum highlighting the infallible logic [...]
Why a Stock Market Double Would Not be Weird
This morning we got a sad note from a famous former hedge fund manager (a friend of the firm who shall remain nameless): What if the [stock] [...]
Tactical Asset Allocation: A Practitioner’s Defense of Return Predictability
The prospect of being able to successfully anticipate and predict future market returns is irresistible to practitioners and academics alike, although success has proven elusive. Many [...]
Was the Financial Crisis Really a Valuation Crisis?
Most people look back at the dot-com bubble and acknowledge valuations were elevated far above historical norms. Investors ignored historically useful fundamentals, such as earnings [...]