Stock/Bond Equity Doesn’t Signal much…
Do-It-Yourself tactical macro modules for August are posted. Create a free account here if you want to access the site directly. Macro Chart of the Month: Equity/bond risk [...]
Japanese Bond Yields Spike!! Successful Abenomics or the Beginning of the End?
It appears Japanese monetary policy is beginning to resemble Kabuki. Kabuki is a form of Japanese theater that involves stylized performances that can appear positively [...]
Do REITs blow up if interest rates spike?
Depends on the time period analyzed... Positive correlation between rates and REIT returns prior to 2000 Negative correlation post 2000. Extreme positive interest rate moves [...]
Are Stocks Cheap? The Feds think so…
Are Stocks Cheap? A Review of the Evidence Fernando Duarte and Carlo Rosa A version of the paper can be found here. Want a summary of [...]
Projected 15-year S&P 500 Returns
Prediction stock market returns--a fascinating concept. A true magical talent. Of course, we've put some of our brainpower (a limited resource!) on the subject [...]
The Military Industrial Complex has Arrived
A bit off topic, but definitely should play into macroeconomic themes and theses. The 2011 highest income counties in 2011 from the WP. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/local/highest-income-counties/ The [...]
Debt burdens are painful!
Reinhart (and another Reinhart) and Rogoff have another paper in their series about "Why debt sucks."The title of their newest work is "Debt Overhangs: Past [...]
Out of this world Macroeconomic Data
Measuring Economic Growth from Outer Space Vernon Henderson, Adam Storeygard, and David Weil. A recent version of the paper can be found here. Abstract: GDP [...]
Long-Term Trendspotting: Demographics Matter
Demographic Changes, Financial Markets, and the Economy Robert Arnott and Denis Chaves A version of the paper can be found here. Abstract: It seems natural [...]