By |Published On: April 15th, 2014|Categories: Uncategorized|

A few months ago we did a post on avoiding predictions associated with highly confident experts.

A quote from my own blog post:

Expect the unexpected. Avoid highly confident predictions. Follow the model.

And of course, today, yours truly was on with Fox Business News with Deirdre Bolton.

Let me also point out that I made a highly confident prediction–“10 out of 10”–that carried interest would be eliminated in the next 5 years. I based this ridiculously precise prediction on the threats from the current administration:

http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/tax-policy/Documents/General-Explanations-FY2014.pdf

From the source...

From the source…

See our post on “Tax Party–And Everyone is Invited” for a detailed discussion.

10/10? 

Avoid highly confident predictions–including my own. But hey, I do think there is a better than 50% chance the party will end with carried interest. Only the future will reveal what happens.

www.foxbusiness.comon-airrisk-and-rewardindex

Click to hear a bold, highly confident prediction…

Tweet the video–want to get on their trending videos and be famous for a day. Come on, I need something to ease the pain of paying my taxes this year!

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About the Author: Wesley Gray, PhD

Wesley Gray, PhD
After serving as a Captain in the United States Marine Corps, Dr. Gray earned an MBA and a PhD in finance from the University of Chicago where he studied under Nobel Prize Winner Eugene Fama. Next, Wes took an academic job in his wife’s hometown of Philadelphia and worked as a finance professor at Drexel University. Dr. Gray’s interest in bridging the research gap between academia and industry led him to found Alpha Architect, an asset management firm dedicated to an impact mission of empowering investors through education. He is a contributor to multiple industry publications and regularly speaks to professional investor groups across the country. Wes has published multiple academic papers and four books, including Embedded (Naval Institute Press, 2009), Quantitative Value (Wiley, 2012), DIY Financial Advisor (Wiley, 2015), and Quantitative Momentum (Wiley, 2016). Dr. Gray currently resides in Palmas Del Mar Puerto Rico with his wife and three children. He recently finished the Leadville 100 ultramarathon race and promises to make better life decisions in the future.

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Important Disclosures

For informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as specific investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Certain information is deemed to be reliable, but its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Third party information may become outdated or otherwise superseded without notice.  Neither the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) nor any other federal or state agency has approved, determined the accuracy, or confirmed the adequacy of this article.

The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Alpha Architect, its affiliates or its employees. Our full disclosures are available here. Definitions of common statistics used in our analysis are available here (towards the bottom).

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