By |Published On: September 23rd, 2014|Categories: Uncategorized|

We were all chatting in the office today making fun of our own predictions and the predictions of others. The conversation quickly turned to the ridiculous Dow Jones Index projections that were being discussed in the late ’90s.

Remarkably, Dow 30,000 projections are still in vogue (see below).

First an example of a 1999 Dow projection:

Back in July 1999, Fayez Sarofim saw a 30,000 Dow in 2007.

And why not? The charts all pointed up:

dow1

Dow Index 03/1994 – 07/19/1999

Now a more recent projection:

Last year there was another 30,000 prediction for 2023.

And why not? The charts all point up:

dow2

Dow Index 03/2009 – 09/2014

We’re gonna throw our projection out there:

Dow 1,000,000 by 2100.

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About the Author: Wesley Gray, PhD

Wesley Gray, PhD
After serving as a Captain in the United States Marine Corps, Dr. Gray earned an MBA and a PhD in finance from the University of Chicago where he studied under Nobel Prize Winner Eugene Fama. Next, Wes took an academic job in his wife’s hometown of Philadelphia and worked as a finance professor at Drexel University. Dr. Gray’s interest in bridging the research gap between academia and industry led him to found Alpha Architect, an asset management firm dedicated to an impact mission of empowering investors through education. He is a contributor to multiple industry publications and regularly speaks to professional investor groups across the country. Wes has published multiple academic papers and four books, including Embedded (Naval Institute Press, 2009), Quantitative Value (Wiley, 2012), DIY Financial Advisor (Wiley, 2015), and Quantitative Momentum (Wiley, 2016). Dr. Gray currently resides in Palmas Del Mar Puerto Rico with his wife and three children. He recently finished the Leadville 100 ultramarathon race and promises to make better life decisions in the future.

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For informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as specific investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Certain information is deemed to be reliable, but its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Third party information may become outdated or otherwise superseded without notice.  Neither the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) nor any other federal or state agency has approved, determined the accuracy, or confirmed the adequacy of this article.

The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Alpha Architect, its affiliates or its employees. Our full disclosures are available here. Definitions of common statistics used in our analysis are available here (towards the bottom).

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