By |Published On: September 3rd, 2013|Categories: Behavioral Finance|

The search for configural relationships in personality assessment: The diagnosis of psychosis vs. neurosis from the MMPI

  • Goldberg, L. R.
  • Multivariate Behavioral Research, 4, 523-536
  • An online version of the paper can be found here
  • Want a summary of academic papers with alpha? Check out our free Academic Alpha Database!

Abstract:

In 1956 Meehl predicted that the relationships between MMPI scores and the psychosis-neurosis diagnostic classification should be highly configural in character, and therefore that no linear combination of MMPI scores should be able to differentiate neurotic from psychotic patients as accurately as either experienced clinical psychologists or configural actuarial techniques. The present paper summarizes the findings from ten years of research on this question. While the research for configural actuarial procedures has led to a moderator variable, neither clinical experts, moderated regression analyses, profile typologies, the Perceptron algorithm, density estimation procedures, Bayesian techniques, nor sequential analyses-when cross-validated-have been-able to improve on a simple linear function. The implications of these negative findings for investigations of configural relationships with other problems are discussed.

Prediction:

The authors compare the diagnosis results for psychosis or neurosis across experts, complex models, and simple models.

Here are the results from the test with a few highlights for examples of the 1) human experts, 2)  complex model, and 3) simple model.

Goldberg_1969

Anyone else catching on to a pattern here? Simple beats complex and machines beat humans.

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About the Author: Wesley Gray, PhD

Wesley Gray, PhD
After serving as a Captain in the United States Marine Corps, Dr. Gray earned an MBA and a PhD in finance from the University of Chicago where he studied under Nobel Prize Winner Eugene Fama. Next, Wes took an academic job in his wife’s hometown of Philadelphia and worked as a finance professor at Drexel University. Dr. Gray’s interest in bridging the research gap between academia and industry led him to found Alpha Architect, an asset management firm dedicated to an impact mission of empowering investors through education. He is a contributor to multiple industry publications and regularly speaks to professional investor groups across the country. Wes has published multiple academic papers and four books, including Embedded (Naval Institute Press, 2009), Quantitative Value (Wiley, 2012), DIY Financial Advisor (Wiley, 2015), and Quantitative Momentum (Wiley, 2016). Dr. Gray currently resides in Palmas Del Mar Puerto Rico with his wife and three children. He recently finished the Leadville 100 ultramarathon race and promises to make better life decisions in the future.

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