The Curse of Popularity
We can define popularity as the condition of being admired, sought after, well-known, and/or accepted. One would think popularity is a good thing. However, when it comes to investing, the research shows that along with [...]
The Folly of Hiring Winners and Firing Losers
One of the mistakes that prevent investors from achieving their goals is that when it comes to evaluating investments and investment strategies most think that three years is a long time, five years a very [...]
Compound Your Knowledge Episode 9: Investor Confidence & Issues with Factor Investing
In this week's post, we discuss two posts. The first post, written by Elisabetta, examines a new method attempting to directly measure aggregate investor overconfidence. The second post, written by Larry Swedroe, examines issues that [...]
Aggregate Investor Confidence in the Stock Market
Aggregate Investor Confidence in the Stock Market Christoph Meier Journal of Behavioral Finance, 2018 A version of this paper can be found here Want to read our summaries of academic finance papers? Check out our Academic Research [...]
Discipline: A Necessary Condition for Successful Investing
A good friend, Sherman Doll, related the following story. Sherman has been a two-line sport kite flier for years. While not a pro, he has learned a few tricks from observing the flying behavior of [...]
Do Security Analyst Recommendations Bet on or Against Academic Findings?
As my co-author Andrew Berkin, the director of research for Bridgeway Capital Management, and I explain in our new book, “Your Complete Guide to Factor-Based Investing,” there is considerable evidence of cross-sectional return predictability. Citing [...]
The Dividend Disconnect: Behavioral Finance Strikes Again
The first prediction in the paper is that "Capital Gains and Dividends Viewed as Distinct Desirable Attributes". But what does that mean? The authors highlight that when assessing stock positions, an investor has two options for how to assess the performance -- (1) simple price appreciation/depreciation or (2) total return. Note that price appreciation/depreciation is simply the price appreciation/depreciation on the position, while total return includes both the price appreciation/depreciation plus the dividend return. Directly from the paper: For many positions, either price changes or returns including dividends will yield the same category of gain or loss. However, some positions are at a gain when dividends are included, but at a loss without their inclusion. Do investors treat such positions as being at a gain or at a loss when evaluating whether to sell the position? This is equivalent to asking whether investors adjust for the mechanical decrease in shares price that results from dividend payments.
The Value Premium: Risk or Mispricing?
One of the great debates in finance is whether the source of the value premium is risk-based or a behavioral anomaly. In our book, “Your Complete Guide to Factor-Based Investing,” my co-author Andrew Berkin and [...]
A Direct Test of the Dividend Catering Hypothesis
Why do CEOs decide to pay dividends? That is an interesting question, and one that academics have been researching for years. Miller and Modigiliani in 1961 show that if one assumes perfect and efficient capital [...]
“Alternative” Facts about Formulaic Value Investing
A new paper, "Facts about Formulaic Value Investing," is making the rounds and professes to plunge a dagger directly into the heart of systematic value investors. Half of my inbox is filled with questions regarding this [...]
Swedroe Spotlight: Does Market Sentiment Help Explain Momentum?
David Smith, Na Wang, Ying Wang and Edward Zychowicz contribute to the literature on momentum with their paper, “Sentiment and the Effectiveness of Technical Analysis: Evidence from the Hedge Fund Industry,” which was published in the December 2016 issue of the Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis. Their work examines how investor sentiment affects the effectiveness of technical analysis strategies (which include the use of moving averages as well as momentum) used by hedge funds (which are considered sophisticated investors).The study was motivated by prior research that has focused on “investor sentiment,” which is the propensity of individuals to trade on noise and emotions rather than facts. Sentiment causes investors to have beliefs about future cash flows and investment risks that aren’t justified. Two researchers, Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler, constructed an investor sentiment index based on six measures: trading volume as measured by NYSE turnover; the dividend premium (the difference between the average market-to-book ratio of dividend-payers and non-payers); the closed-end fund discount; the number and first-day returns of IPOs; and the equity share in new issues. Data is available at through Wurgler and New York University.
Book Review — The Undoing Project: A Friendship That Changed Our Minds
Psychology permeates nearly every area of human endeavor. In the world of investing, for instance, psychology can help us understand the systematically poor decision-making that drives the academic anomalies explored on this blog. One cannot [...]
Active Versus Passive for the US and the Canadian Markets
We all hear about the massive move away from active to passive in the US market. We also hear arguments that passive may eat the world and that active management is a zero sum game [...]
Book Review — Loaded: Money, Psychology, and How to Get Ahead…
A few months ago I had the pleasure of hearing Sarah Newcomb speak at a recent Morningstar ETF conference. She was extraordinary. Although I only caught the last 20 minutes of her talk, she had [...]
Value investing is quite possibly the worst idea…EVER
We believe deeply in the value philosophy as first described by Ben Graham: view stocks as ownership in a firm; buy with a margin of safety; avoid stories; think independently; and so forth. In fact, [...]
Behavioral Finance Must See: Thaler’s 2016 Presidential Address
This is a great video to watch over the holiday weekend. Prof. Thaler does a great job walking through behavioral finance/economics. He also has a paper on related topics: Behavioral Economics: Past, Present and Future [...]
Leveraging Persuasion Science to Nudge Investors in a Better Direction
Making choices can be difficult, but possible alternatives can be arranged in a way that facilitates effective decision-making. This is the idea behind “choice architecture,” an concept that is explored in the book, “Nudge,” by [...]
Want to Know the Secret to Inefficient Prices? Lazy Prices.
How do you handle repetitive tasks? If you're like most people, you work through a task in a variety of ways, find the most efficient approach, and then stick to that workflow. Consider email address autofill, automatic [...]
Behavioral Finance Strikes Again: Contrast Effects in Financial Markets
At this point, even hard core efficient market fans will likely admit that behavior can influence investment decisions. Humans aren't robots. However, just because some investors exhibit bad behavior that doesn't mean they can influence prices. As the story [...]
Book Review — The Drunkard’s Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives
Although randomness is all around us, we often fail to recognize the profound role it plays in our lives. Evolutionary biology and faulty intuition lead us to make mistakes that can radically distort our perception of [...]