Quant Robots Draw Blood and the “Human Touch” Bias
It is hard enough to let a computer take control of your investment decisions. I think there is an innate comfort to human interaction. Let's [...]
SAC Capital Advisors: What You See is All There Is
The Justice Department filed criminal charges yesterday against SAC Capital Advisors, accusing the multi-billion dollar hedge fund of securities and wire fraud. What's interesting is [...]
Why aren’t you a slave to an algorithm?
http://www.aeonmagazine.com/world-views/steven-poole-can-algorithms-ever-take-over-from-humans/ A great article by Steven Poole. He highlights what Turnkey readers are slowing learning via our Models vs. Experts series: Speaking to the evidence [...]
Models vs. Experts #9: Diagnosing Acute Abdominal Pain
Computer-aided diagnosis of acute abdominal pain De Dombal, F. T., Leaper, D. J., Staniland, J. R., McCann, A. P., & Horrocks, J. C. British Medical [...]
Models vs. Experts #8: Graduate School Admissions
A case study of graduate admissions: Application of three principles of human decision making Dawes, R. M. American Psychologist, 26, 180-188 An online version of [...]
Models vs. Experts #7: Job Analysis
A comparison of holistic and decomposed judgment strategies in job analyses by job incumbents synthesis Cornelius, E. T., & Lyness, K. S. Journal of Applied [...]
Complexity ==> Confusion and Dysfunction
A heartwarming paragraph from a paper I'm reading: Miller (1956) argued that there are definite limitations on the number of conceptual units that humans can [...]
Models vs. Experts #6: Predicting Male Psychological Disturbance
MMPI in actuarial diagnosis of psychological disturbance among college males Cooke, J. K. Journal of Counseling Psychology, 14, 474-477 A version of the paper can [...]
Models vs. Experts #5: Health Care Protocol
Experience with a computerized interactive protocol system using HELP Cannon, S. R., & Gardner, R. M. Computers in Biomedical Research,13, 399-409. A version of the [...]
Models vs. Experts #4: Electrocardiogram
Performance of the computer and physician in the analysis of the electrocardiogram Caceres, C. A., & Hochberg, H. H. American Heart Journal, 79, 439-443 A [...]
Models vs. Experts #3: Advertising Sales Predictions
A Field Test of Implications of Laboratory Studies of Decision Making Ashton, A. H. The Accounting Review, 59, 361-375 A version of the paper can [...]
Models vs. Experts #2: Rorschach interpretation
Unsuccessful differential diagnosis from the Rorschach Armitage, S. G., & Pearl, D. Journal of Consulting Psychology, 21. 479-484 A version of the paper can be [...]
Models vs. Experts #1: College GPA predictions
Predictive efficiency of two multivariate statistical techniques in comparison with clinical predictions Alexakos, C.E. Journal of Educational Psychology, 57, 207-306 A version of the paper can [...]
More Information=More Confidence=More Problems
Effects of amount of information on judgment accuracy and confidence Claire I. Tsai, Joshua Klayman, Reid Hastie A version of the paper can be found here. [...]
Simple Models Beat Experts: Even in Investment!
One of the more fascinating findings from psychology research is the empirical finding that simple models often beat experts. In other words, insights from your [...]
CEO Voice Pitch–Deeper Voice; deeper pockets
Just when you thought academics were not wasting their time doing incredibly useless research, along comes this intriguing research: Voice Pitch Predicts Labor Market Success [...]
What happens when you think about finance too much
My uncle, who happens to a professional fisherman down in Mexico, just sent me a link to an article on sportfishing. http://www.bdoutdoors.com/article/fishing-cabo-san-lucas-mexico/ The article actually has [...]
Analyzing Speech to Detect Financial Misreporting
Analyzing Speech to Detect Financial Misreporting Jessen L. Hobson, William J. Mayew, Mohan Venkatachalam A version of the paper can be found here. Abstract: "We [...]
The Death of Twitter Trading?
Almost a year ago, we posted a few articles on strategies focused on using Twitter as a mechanism to trade stocks. Our basic conclusion was [...]
Gain and Loss Learning: Effects on Life Financial Outcomes
“From shirtsleeves to shirtsleeves in three generations.” - Andrew Carnegie Since time immemorial, humans have wondered at the factors that give rise to the accumulation [...]