AQR Capital Management has defined the factor (QMJ, or quality minus junk) to be companies with the following traits: low earnings volatility, high margins, high asset turnover (indicating efficient use of assets), low financial leverage, low operating leverage (indicating a strong balance sheet and low macroeconomic risk) and low stock-specific risk (volatility that is unexplained by macroeconomic activity). Companies with these attributes historically have provided higher returns, especially in down markets. In particular, high-quality stocks that are profitable, stable, growing and have a high payout ratio outperform low-quality stocks with the opposite characteristics. If you happen to be really excited about profitability I’ve previously covered using it as a factor in an early post. Using their own definition, AQR found that, for the period from 1958 through 2018, the quality premium had an annual average return of 4.7 percent, a standard deviation of 9.6 percent, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.5.
Jason Hsu, Vitali Kalesnik and Engin Kose contribute to the literature on the quality factor with their study “What Is Quality?” which was published in the Second Quarter 2019 issue of the Journal of Financial Analysts. They noted that MSCI, FTSE Russell, S&P, Research Affiliates, EDHEC, and Deutsche Bank, among others, have created quality indexes for licensing and have typically included quality as part of their multifactor offerings.
Because of the lack of consistency when implementing quality, Hsu, Kalesnik, and Kose examined which traits were responsible for the quality premium. They examined the following traits: profitability, earnings stability, capital structure, growth, accounting quality, payout/dilution, and investment, noting that each of the six index providers listed above uses substantially different characteristics in their portfolio construction. They tested each of the traits for robustness (using three to eight definitions, such as return on assets and return on equity for profitability) and pervasiveness (time and geography) as well as whether it had been explored thoroughly in peer-reviewed journals. Specifically, they examined factor performance in five regions: the United States, Global Developed, Japan, Europe, and Asia Pacific excluding Japan. The U.S. data covers the period 1963 through 2016, while global data covers the period 1990 through 2016.
The following is a summary of their findings:
Among a comprehensive group of the quality categories used by practitioners, capital structure, earnings stability and growth in profitability show little evidence of premia, whereas profitability, accounting quality (few accruals), payout/dilution and investment tend to be associated with premia (and provide credible models that motivate the phenomenon); further, profitability and investment-related characteristics tend to capture most of the quality-related premia.
Characteristics, such as low book leverage and low earnings growth volatility, appear to be overly related to the low-volatility characteristic to warrant independent consideration.
The correlations of returns among the six index providers reveal a lack of similarity, indicating they are not proxies for a common hidden factor, suggesting these leading quality index products are a collection of heterogeneous attributes linked by the theme of financial and accounting quality.
No evidence exists that the six indexes proxy for a unique homogeneous source of risk or a single anomaly. Therefore, quality indexes are more appropriately interpreted as multifactor portfolios, the primary commonality is that they are constructed mostly from the less well-known and less vetted firm characteristics.
Hsu, Kalesnik and Kose concluded that the design of indexes “seems driven more by marketing optics than theory or data.” They added:
All of the selected quality characteristics are viewed as being attractive firm attributes, those characteristics investors would generally be willing to ‘pay up’ for. Implicit in the design is that the high-growth and high-profitability firms with low debt and conservative accounting practices are underpriced and thus generate high returns! This should raise alarms for the economists among us. It’s not just a free lunch, it’s a free feast!
I would add the following warning. While premiums resulting from risk-based characteristics cannot be arbitraged away (though cash flows to exploit premiums can cause them to shrink), behavioral characteristics are more susceptible to arbitrage, especially in large stocks where limits to arbitrage (that prevent mispricings from being corrected) are less present. Quality companies tend to also be large companies. Thus, limits to arbitrage play a much lesser role. In other words, buyer beware.
There is one more important point we need to cover.
Exposure to Quality
While some value strategies use the single metric of P/B to determine value, others include other metrics such as P/E and P/CF. The metrics which include earnings-related measures provide exposure to the profitability factor (and the related quality factor). Thus, providing exposure to traits which Hsu, Kalesnik, and Kose found passed their tests. As examples, in their portfolio construction design, Dimensional’s value funds now use not only P/B but also a measure of profitability. AQR Capital Management’s value funds, in addition to using P/B, also use P/E, P/CF, price-to-forecasted earnings and sales-to-enterprise value. In other words, you can gain exposure to profitability and quality indirectly through investments in value funds that use metrics other than P/B. And multifactor funds are more efficient than single-factor funds. One reason for this is that, if you use the component approach, you could have one factor-based fund buying a stock (or group of stocks), while another factor-based fund will be selling the same stock (or group of stocks). For example, if a stock (or an entire sector) is falling in price, it might drop to a level that would cause a value fund to buy it, while a momentum fund would be selling the very same security. Investors would thus be paying two management fees and also incurring trading costs twice, without having any impact on the portfolio’s overall holdings.
Hsu, Kalesnik, and Kose show that, when selecting funds to gain exposure to desired traits/characteristics, investors need to dig deeper than just relying on a fund’s name. Fund construction rules matter a great deal. And while it’s important to consider a fund’s expense ratio, fund construction rules can matter more than fee differentials.
We observe that most of the indices use at least a few non-robust measures in their definitions.
Jason Hsu, Vitali Kalesnik, and Engin Kose; What is Quality
As Chief Research Officer for Buckingham Strategic Wealth and Buckingham Strategic Partners, Larry Swedroe spends his time, talent and energy educating investors on the benefits of evidence-based investing with enthusiasm few can match. Larry was among the first authors to publish a book that explained the science of investing in layman’s terms, “The Only Guide to a Winning Investment Strategy You’ll Ever Need.” He has since authored seven more books: “What Wall Street Doesn’t Want You to Know” (2001), “Rational Investing in Irrational Times” (2002), “The Successful Investor Today” (2003), “Wise Investing Made Simple” (2007), “Wise Investing Made Simpler” (2010), “The Quest for Alpha” (2011) and “Think, Act, and Invest Like Warren Buffett” (2012). He has also co-authored eight books about investing. His latest work, “Your Complete Guide to a Successful and Secure Retirement was co-authored with Kevin Grogan and published in January 2019. In his role as chief research officer and as a member of Buckingham’s Investment Policy Committee, Larry, who joined the firm in 1996, regularly reviews the findings published in dozens of peer-reviewed financial journals, evaluates the outcomes and uses the result to inform the organization’s formal investment strategy recommendations. He has had his own articles published in the Journal of Accountancy, Journal of Investing, AAII Journal, Personal Financial Planning Monthly, Journal of Indexing, and The Journal of Portfolio Management. Larry’s dedication to helping others has made him a sought-after national speaker. He has made appearances on national television shows airing on NBC, CNBC, CNN, and Bloomberg Personal Finance. Larry is a prolific writer and contributes regularly to multiple outlets, including Advisor Perspective, Evidence Based Investing, and Alpha Architect. Before joining Buckingham Wealth Partners, Larry was vice chairman of Prudential Home Mortgage. He has held positions at Citicorp as senior vice president and regional treasurer, responsible for treasury, foreign exchange and investment banking activities, including risk management strategies. Larry holds an MBA in finance and investment from New York University and a bachelor’s degree in finance from Baruch College in New York.
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