Factor Investing

Negative Screening and the Sin Premium

While most sin stocks in the IC method were also identified as sin in the TA method, there were 57 firm-year cases where a company showed up as sin only in the IC method—these were false positive sin stocks as identified in the IC method.

Intangible-Adjusted Profitability Factor

Not accounting for intangibles affects not just value metrics but other measures (such as profitability) that often scale by book value or total assets, both of which are affected by intangibles—and investors recognize at least some of their value.

Reducing the Impact of Momentum Crashes

Momentum crashes are a blight on the performance of momentum strategies. Although there has been a fair amount of research on the topic, few practical solutions have emerged to mitigate the impact on portfolios. In this study, the authors document the outperformance of stocks, in terms of momentum, far away from their peak position relative to stocks very near their peaks. Turns out the outperformance is very large. It also accounts for the majority of negative momentum performance.

The Drivers of Booms and Busts in the Value Premium

John Campbell, Stefano Giglio, and Christopher Polk, authors of the March 2023 study “What Drives Booms and Busts in Value?,” sought to determine which factors drive value’s booms and busts. They interpreted the returns to the standard value strategy through the lens of Robert Merton’s intertemporal CAPM (ICAPM).

Novel explanations for risk-based option momentum

In this paper, we propose a cross-sectional option momentum strategy that is based on the risk component of delta-hedged option returns. We find strong evidence of risk continuation in option returns.

How factor exposure changes over time: a study of Information Decay

Factor strategies need to be rebalanced in order to maintain their factor exposure. But different factors decay at different rates and this affects how they should be rebalanced. For example, momentum needs to be rebalanced more than value. This study digs into these questions.

Combining Reversals with Time-Series Momentum Strategies

Jiadong Liu and Fotis Papailias contribute to the momentum literature with their study “Time Series Reversal in Trend-Following Strategies,” published in the January 2023 issue of “European Financial Management,” in which they examined the reversal property of various financial assets.

Institutional Investors’ Impact on Factor Premiums

For anomalies that are risk-based, that is what we should expect to see because, while risk cannot be arbitraged away, cash flows can reduce the size of the premium. For the anomalies that are behavioral based, it appears that limits to arbitrage are still sufficient to allow them to persist post-publication. 

Are Short Covering Trades Informative?

The importance of the role played by short sellers has received increasing academic attention in recent years. Short sellers help keep market prices efficient by preventing overpricing and the formation of price bubbles in financial markets. Market efficiency is important because an efficient market allocates capital efficiently. If short sellers were inhibited from expressing their views on valuations, securities prices could become overvalued and excess capital would be allocated to those firms.

Compression: Can the Value Spread Expand Forever?

We believe owning deep-value stocks is potentially interesting at these valuation peaks. But as I said in the previous two times I wrote this, the spread can get more extreme. At some point, we'd like to stop talking about the valuation spread and its potential effect on forward expected returns...and see that spread COMPRESS!

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