Gold as a Safe-Haven Asset
I’ve received calls from clients inquiring about moving assets to gold. When I asked them why, three reasons dominated.
Pursuing Factor Premiums at the Industry and Country Level
This article examines the research conducted by Dimensional to determine the efficacy of an industry or country approach to factor investing.
The Reddit Road to Riches?
No surprise: reddit message boards don't lead to alpha generation.
Merger Arbitrage as Diversification Strategy
Merger arbitrage is an investment style in which investors seek to buy shares of firms that are acquisition targets with the objective of realizing the difference between the amount for which the target is being acquired and the stock price of the target shortly after the acquisition is announced. The stock price of the target company typically sells below the acquisition price, reflecting the uncertainty of the deal being completed (the arbitrage spread). Betting on mergers is a classic hedge fund arbitrage strategy.
Combining Reversals with Time-Series Momentum Strategies
Jiadong Liu and Fotis Papailias contribute to the momentum literature with their study “Time Series Reversal in Trend-Following Strategies,” published in the January 2023 issue of “European Financial Management,” in which they examined the reversal property of various financial assets.
Is a Naive 1/N Diversification Strategy Efficient?
A simple 1/N factor diversification strategy will likely be at least as efficient as more “sophisticated” versions.
Institutional Investors’ Impact on Factor Premiums
For anomalies that are risk-based, that is what we should expect to see because, while risk cannot be arbitraged away, cash flows can reduce the size of the premium. For the anomalies that are behavioral based, it appears that limits to arbitrage are still sufficient to allow them to persist post-publication.
Research and Development, Expected Profitability, and Expected Returns
Regardless of the model used, an anomaly for all models is that the empirical evidence demonstrates that stocks with high research and development (R&D) expenses have delivered a premium.
Are Short Covering Trades Informative?
The importance of the role played by short sellers has received increasing academic attention in recent years. Short sellers help keep market prices efficient by preventing overpricing and the formation of price bubbles in financial markets. Market efficiency is important because an efficient market allocates capital efficiently. If short sellers were inhibited from expressing their views on valuations, securities prices could become overvalued and excess capital would be allocated to those firms.
Intangibles and the Value Factor
This figure shows the long, short and long-short leg performance of the intangible value factor in comparison to the traditional value factor. The performance is shown for each of the four regions: U.S., Europe, Japan and Asia Pacific between June 1983 and December 2021. The monthly returns are ex-post volatility scaled to 5% p.m
Inside the Minds of Expected Stock Returns
Non-traditional investor preferences play an important role in explaining the cross-section of expected stock returns.
It’s Always Darkest Just Before Dawn
Wide divergences between the valuations of cheap stocks relative to expensive stocks have preceded significant outperformance for value over the subsequent decade, as shown in this figure.
Factor Returns and the Information in Valuation Spreads
Given that valuations provide information on equity returns, it should not be surprising to learn that valuation spreads provide information on future factor premiums.
Should investors be indifferent to dividend impact on stock returns?
In their 1961 paper, “Dividend Policy, Growth, and the Valuation of Shares,” Merton Miller and Franco Modigliani famously established that dividend policy should be irrelevant to stock returns. As they explained it, at least before frictions like trading costs and taxes, investors should be indifferent to $1 in the form of a dividend (causing the stock price to drop by $1) and $1 received by selling shares. This must be true, unless you believe that $1 isn’t worth $1. This theorem has not been challenged since, at least in the academic community.
Improving ESG Practices Boosts Valuations
This chart on creating shareholder value through ESG engagement is useful when evaluating if ESG practices boost valuations.
Mitigating Risks with Factor Strategies
The following exhibit, which is useful to the subject of mitigating risks with factor strategies, provides the total return of the four benchmark portfolios and the five anomaly portfolios.
The Value Factor and Deleveraging
How do you separate the signal from the noise? To have confidence that a factor premium, or strategy, isn’t just the result of data mining - a lucky/random outcome - we recommended that you should require evidence that the premium has been not only persistent over long periods of time and across economic regimes, but also pervasive across sectors, countries, geographic regions and even asset classes; robust to various definitions (for example, there has been both a value and a momentum premium using many different metrics); survives transactions costs; and has intuitive risk- or behavioral-based explanations for the premium to persist.
Expected Returns to Green Stocks
The past decade has seen a dramatic growth in sustainable investing—applying environmental, social and governance (ESG) criteria to investment strategies. Investments considered environmentally friendly are often referred to as “green,” while “brown” denotes the opposite. Important questions for investors are: What are the expected returns to green stocks? What does their past performance tell us about their future expected returns? We begin by looking at what economic theory tells us our expectations should be.
The Performance of Multi-Factor Long-Short Portfolios in Various Economic Regimes
To determine if a multi-factor approach has provided diversification benefits in terms of exposure to economic cycle risks, the research team at Counterpoint evaluated returns to multifactor long-short strategies, stocks, and 1-month T-bills in a variety of economic conditions (recession or no recession, high or no high inflation, and stagflation) over the period July 1963-August 2022.
The “Resurrected” Size Effect and Monetary Policy
Given that tightening monetary policy increases economic risks, Simpson and Grossman provided compelling evidence of a risk explanation for the size factor. For those investors who engage in tactical asset allocation strategies (market timing), their evidence suggests that it might be possible to exploit the information. Before jumping to that conclusion, I would caution that because markets are forward-looking, they should anticipate periods of Fed tightening and the heightened risks of small stocks.