This paper examines how cultural biases affect high-stakes decisions in a FinTech setting, showing that even when information is the same, the social groups we prefer can lead us into worse outcomes. The result: bias isn’t just unethical, it’s expensive.
This paper builds a new measure of “equity market volatility” using newspaper articles and finds that policy-related news (fiscal, monetary, trade, regulation) explains a large share of volatility spikes.
Momentum works, across markets, time periods, and portfolio designs. But it also has weak spots, especially during market reversals, which risk-aware construction can help manage.
Historically, the finance community (both academics and investment firms) has divided stocks into two categories: cheap and expensive. Initially, the book-to-price ratio was used to [...]
Over the past two decades, middle-class Americans have quietly changed how they invest. This paper shows that the share of investable wealth held in stocks has risen—and become systematically linked to age. The driving force? The Pension Protection Act (PPA), which made target date funds (TDFs) the default option in retirement plans.
Using thousands of real pitch recordings, the authors find that presentation style drives funding success even when fundamentals are identical. The catch: the most persuasive founders don’t always build the best businesses.
While many investors initially gravitated toward ETFs for their intraday trading capabilities, lower expense ratios, and commission-free trading options, a deeper story has emerged: tax efficiency has become the primary driver of this massive migration, particularly for long-term taxable investors.
For decades, mutual fund flows have been a workhorse variable for understanding investor behavior, market sentiment, and price impact. But what if the way we measure them distorts the story?
When inflation rises, trading behavior changes in systematic ways: liquidity deteriorates, bid-ask spreads widen, and investors trade less on fundamentals and more on short-term noise.
The size effect is alive and well, but it's more nuanced than we once thought. Rather than viewing it as a simple "small beats large" phenomenon, we should understand size as a critical dimension that shapes how effectively other investment factors perform.
This paper reviews early evidence that algorithms can read GP reports, forecast cash flows, and benchmark funds. But it also shows where the limits lie.
Can machine learning techniques improve the prediction of cross-sectional factor returns in equity markets?
Today, machines are not only processing data but interpreting narratives, forecasting returns, and constructing investment theses once reserved for humans. This paper examines how AI is reshaping the role of the discretionary PM, arguing that the edge isn’t disappearing — it’s migrating.
Candès, Hastie, Hogan, Kahn, Luo, and Spector develop a novel framework to measure whether thematic baskets capture real, coherent risks that matter for investors. Their findings challenge conventional risk models and highlight both the dangers and opportunities of betting on investment “themes.”
A sufficient portfolio consists solely of a ladder of inflation-indexed bonds, such as U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), and a stock market index fund. We explain theoretically and demonstrate empirically how this strategy is less risky and more effective at maximizing lifetime retirement income than are methods commonly used by financial advisors.
Large language models are increasingly being used to forecast stock prices and guide investment decisions. But what happens when these models cross borders?
As portfolios incorporate more sustainability data—from climate impact assessments to labor practices and board diversity metrics—a critical question emerges: Does this wealth of ESG information actually enhance portfolio performance, or is it merely additional data without tangible investment value?
Most platforms now intermediate—pooling loans into short-dated portfolios and, increasingly, offering bank-like products that absorb liquidity risk. Why did credit marketplaces evolve away from pure peer-to-peer? This paper quantifies the welfare value of those design choices.
A historical review of Buffett’s implementation of diversification and concentration in practice, as well as his perspective on these concepts, documents a long tradition of heterodox thinking and application.
Equity duration has increased dramatically. As firms reinvest more and delay payouts to the future, asset prices become more sensitive to changes in expected returns rather than fundamentals.
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